UFC · resolved market
UFC 300: Arman Tsarukyan vs Charles Oliveira
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd15b35ab7f822d0b63a1d0b4910915400a21a14bf4de472951dfb6ca690dc235
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tsarukyanof Tsarukyan, Oliveira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Tsarukyan | 62c | 3,032$1,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c3…fb23backed Oliveira | 38c | 2,632$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Oliveira | 36c | 1,383$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Oliveira | 35c | 1,325$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Tsarukyan | 65c | 566.41$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Tsarukyan | 66c | 564.39$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Oliveira | 35c | 473.25$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.64 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Tsarukyan | 66c | 333$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d1…04cabacked Oliveira | 36c | 291.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb8…f95abacked Oliveira | 35c | 246.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Tsarukyan | 64c | 187.05$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…d1e3backed Tsarukyan | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Oliveira | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6127…d48ebacked Tsarukyan | 66c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…4182backed Oliveira | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adb…9d23backed Oliveira | 35c | 56.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5158…1fafbacked Oliveira | 36c | 55.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Oliveira | 34c | 47.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Oliveira | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Oliveira | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Tsarukyan | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Tsarukyan | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 300: Arman Tsarukyan vs Charles Oliveirathis page
- UFC 300: Alex Pereira vs Jamahal HillPereira won
- UFC 300: Bo Nickal vs Cody BrundageNickal won
- UFC 300: Jiri Prochazka vs Aleksandar RakicProchazka won
- UFC 300: Justin Gaethje vs Max HollowayHolloway won
- UFC 300: Zhang Weili vs Yan XiaonanWeili won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.