UFC · resolved market
UFC 300: Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1dd574e4ce81a65df46b14301aefd8251faf7041777f38d5952bfb8173ecad0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hollowayof Gaethje, Holloway
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Holloway | 40c | 5,818$2,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,516.94 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c3…fb23backed Gaethje | 61c | 4,952$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Holloway | 41c | 1,559$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Holloway | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Holloway | 41c | 800$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Gaethje | 60c | 672$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Gaethje | 60c | 597.38$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Holloway | 38c | 525$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.5 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Holloway | 41c | 506.61$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Gaethje | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Gaethje | 59c | 406.78$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d1…04cabacked Holloway | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Holloway | 41c | 118.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…d1e3backed Gaethje | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…8b7bbacked Gaethje | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Gaethje | 57c | 93.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Holloway | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Gaethje | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Gaethje | 59c | 41.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Gaethje | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Gaethje | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 300: Justin Gaethje vs Max Hollowaythis page
- UFC 300: Alex Pereira vs Jamahal HillPereira won
- UFC 300: Arman Tsarukyan vs Charles OliveiraTsarukyan won
- UFC 300: Bo Nickal vs Cody BrundageNickal won
- UFC 300: Jiri Prochazka vs Aleksandar RakicProchazka won
- UFC 300: Zhang Weili vs Yan XiaonanWeili won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.