NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Nets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x893a887bfde9e0213e3976a44120dd3341cdb87a751250175318eac7172fb351
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Netsof Bucks, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Bucks | 71c | 34,104$24,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,116.11 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Nets | 50c | 23,299$11,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,740.98 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Nets | 34c | 16,193$5,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,729.72 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Nets | 49c | 8,969$4,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,531.52 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Nets | 45c | 6,811$3,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,764.76 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Bucks | 44c | 6,284$2,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,795.53 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d2…cfb1backed Bucks | 78c | 5,149$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Bucks | 61c | 4,615$2,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800.95 | 259 | 39%101 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Nets | 24c | 4,428$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,375.46 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…dc66backed Nets | 24c | 3,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,269.99 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…2081backed Nets | 78c | 2,168$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.51 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Bucks | 46c | 1,529$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.35 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Bucks | 54c | 1,456$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.6 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…2193backed Bucks | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 277 | 31.4%87 W · 190 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab7…d178backed Bucks | 52c | 930.3$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…bbfabacked Nets | 48c | 900$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc8…35aebacked Bucks | 65c | 765.79$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8767…a37fbacked Bucks | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Nets | 23c | 696.34$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.65 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Bucks | 60c | 575.14$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed Bucks | 78c | 499.99$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Nets | 20c | 464.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.47 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18fe…7f05backed Bucks | 66c | 451.49$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed Bucks | 77c | 425.53$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.66 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Nets | 23c | 342$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.91 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Nets | 18c | 339.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.54 | 117 | 19.7%23 W · 94 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…611dbacked Bucks | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Bucks | 56c | 316.18$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.22 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Nets | 37c | 282.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.91 | 276 | 31.2%86 W · 190 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Bucks | 66c | 227.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Bucks | 76c | 221.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.71 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce7…fd4abacked Bucks | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…391ebacked Bucks | 74c | 180$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103b…6b22backed Bucks | 79c | 160.96$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5854…8d98backed Nets | 22c | 159.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9857…be38backed Nets | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…b055backed Nets | 39c | 150$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bucks | 75c | 149.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba2…f2aabacked Bucks | 78c | 130$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Nets | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Nets | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…1914backed Nets | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17fc…a628backed Bucks | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Nets | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fa…43adbacked Bucks | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Bucks | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…79ebbacked Bucks | 64c | 95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Bucks | 78c | 83.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…bd18backed Bucks | 78c | 83.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649c…6e4fbacked Bucks | 67c | 81.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…382bbacked Nets | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…d874backed Nets | 76c | 77.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Bucks | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Nets | 43c | 74.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…8728backed Bucks | 68c | 73.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Bucks | 60c | 71.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…3792backed Nets | 22c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd821…5365backed Nets | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…8b63backed Nets | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…3c94backed Nets | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…c014backed Bucks | 80c | 53.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…1fafbacked Bucks | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Nets | 34c | 39.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32d…719ebacked Nets | 35c | 39.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9395…7b2bbacked Nets | 71c | 37.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…e49cbacked Nets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Bucks | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…e7f1backed Bucks | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…1becbacked Bucks | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…3374backed Bucks | 77c | 26.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…4957backed Bucks | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6097…c40dbacked Bucks | 80c | 25.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1c…97d0backed Bucks | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9145…5e49backed Bucks | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Bucks | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e8…2688backed Bucks | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -9.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6c…b425backed Bucks | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…855ebacked Bucks | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…9bc6backed Bucks | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…9a61backed Nets | 54c | 19.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073c…68a5backed Bucks | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17c7…1bdcbacked Nets | 68c | 16.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…86dabacked Bucks | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…c5abbacked Bucks | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.