Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action against Iran by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x043eba4f03731208aa2c2ee1d4eb64b9dc8446f1f991b6bb8ba419f9840d1cc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $391,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $359,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 21c | 64,620$13,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,161.14 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 71c | 32,472$22,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,927.06 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 0c | 32,132$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 56c | 22,374$12,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,624.66 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0f7ebacked Yes | 10c | 14,780$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,340 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +926.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed Yes | 44c | 9,900$4,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,522.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 19c | 9,117$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,424.94 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 5c | 8,497$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.3 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 33c | 7,524$2,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,469.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…8b7bbacked No | 77c | 7,198$5,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,542.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 20c | 5,909$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,720.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c95…4d15backed No | 2c | 5,664$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 26c | 5,367$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,973.68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 61c | 4,786$2,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,932 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 18c | 3,748$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.5 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 4c | 3,427$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1adf…b8d9backed No | 1c | 3,088$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 15c | 2,432$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065.64 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 73c | 2,179$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.66 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6247…0888backed Yes | 11c | 2,093$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +810.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed Yes | 24c | 2,090$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d25fbacked No | 28c | 1,865$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…93e7backed No | 50c | 1,809$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 77c | 1,760$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.49 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…0d6dbacked No | 4c | 1,610$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe586…bd29backed Yes | 69c | 1,336$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 18c | 1,238$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.74 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817c…81f9backed Yes | 9c | 1,193$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +252%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 29c | 1,150$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +239.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fc…cff4backed No | 67c | 1,114$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 44c | 999.98$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.01 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 80c | 950.97$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.32 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e97…9ddebacked Yes | 19c | 940.71$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed No | 4c | 938.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…9793backed Yes | 28c | 811.98$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 19c | 803.26$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.09 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed Yes | 15c | 779.59$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…6d5cbacked Yes | 9c | 731.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 8cpaid | +559.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b57…edcebacked No | 4c | 638.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 30c | 636.57$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.41 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee6d…abbbbacked No | 79c | 613.28$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed No | 74c | 606$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc467…8480backed No | 2c | 600.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 10c | 560$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e7b2backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff10…fa87backed Yes | 18c | 550$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…0aebbacked Yes | 44c | 524.79$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed No | 2c | 519.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 22c | 405.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.4 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 11c | 403.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.03 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…ed4fbacked Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442b…5410backed Yes | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 5c | 367.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…0752backed Yes | 21c | 335.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…1ec7backed Yes | 36c | 313.14$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x818f…638bbacked No | 65c | 304$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 25c | 300$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…2722backed Yes | 57c | 297.22$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…2670backed Yes | 17c | 245.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +97%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 61c | 212.94$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed No | 77c | 160.89$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…cd0bbacked Yes | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…3fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 147.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2aa…4a6cbacked Yes | 28c | 147.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388a…8084backed Yes | 38c | 119.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2efe…ea7ebacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…736dbacked No | 71c | 105.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…23a5backed No | 71c | 101.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…4279backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2eb…a3ecbacked Yes | 30c | 93.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x010e…aef7backed Yes | 26c | 77.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345b…9f2ebacked Yes | 30c | 73.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8b…a0c2backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…e2febacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7765…43d0backed No | 70c | 56.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad0…1ffcbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8d…9c26backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…e3e5backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d70…9418backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…a8bdbacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked No | 71c | 43.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc027…8f95backed No | 71c | 26.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970a…9fe8backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…9c1dbacked No | 75c | 14.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.