TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military action against Iran by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$391,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$359,910

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,887 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes21c64,620$13,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,161.149815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No71c32,472$22,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,927.063729.7%11 W · 26 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-52.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No0c32,132$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.41931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No56c22,374$12,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,624.6626423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dc2…0f7ebacked Yes10c14,780$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,3401100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+926.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c91…1971backed Yes44c9,900$4,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,522.42837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes19c9,117$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,424.9440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked No5c8,497$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.36011.7%7 W · 53 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-76.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed No33c7,524$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,469.11650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c03…8b7bbacked No77c7,198$5,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,542.54540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-39.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes20c5,909$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,720.27540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c95…4d15backed No2c5,664$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes26c5,367$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,973.681643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No61c4,786$2,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9323941%16 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No18c3,748$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.55635.7%20 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked No4c3,427$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-77.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1adf…b8d9backed No1c3,088$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes15c2,432$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,065.644156.1%23 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No73c2,179$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.665749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6247…0888backed Yes11c2,093$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,863.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+810.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17d5…95a6backed Yes24c2,090$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+150.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe065…d25fbacked No28c1,865$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.66475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9372…93e7backed No50c1,809$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.87850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No77c1,760$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.497145.1%32 W · 39 L-8.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-29.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe6fc…0d6dbacked No4c1,610$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe586…bd29backed Yes69c1,336$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a15…0246backed Yes18c1,238$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.742020%4 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817c…81f9backed Yes9c1,193$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+252%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe227…55d8backed Yes29c1,150$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+239.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fc…cff4backed No67c1,114$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.77616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes44c999.98$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.018951.7%46 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed No80c950.97$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.32368.3%3 W · 33 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-87%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5e97…9ddebacked Yes19c940.71$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.621030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef61…c705backed No4c938.3$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x797b…9793backed Yes28c811.98$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.48771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes19c803.26$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.092528%7 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a08…2523backed Yes15c779.59$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.14560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+91.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe201…6d5cbacked Yes9c731.89$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.02742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick8cpaid+559.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b57…edcebacked No4c638.05$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes30c636.57$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.41977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee6d…abbbbacked No79c613.28$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6e…b172backed No74c606$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc467…8480backed No2c600.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf45…d297backed Yes10c560$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b1…e7b2backed Yes9c555.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff10…fa87backed Yes18c550$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4511136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99c2…0aebbacked Yes44c524.79$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed No2c519.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.133633.3%12 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes22c405.22$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.47728.6%22 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d90…85aabacked Yes11c403.03$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.032045%9 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+42.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51b6…ed4fbacked Yes31c400$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x442b…5410backed Yes43c400$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2282100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+141.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No5c367.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.671741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb078…0752backed Yes21c335.43$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.19540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35d2…1ec7backed Yes36c313.14$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+118.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x818f…638bbacked No65c304$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0350%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Yes25c300$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.86812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes8c300$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.27830.8%24 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee64…2722backed Yes57c297.22$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e5…2670backed Yes17c245.8$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+97%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes61c212.94$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.946036.7%22 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed No64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-55.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x35e2…3c92backed Yes14c200$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c85…9e34backed Yes18c166.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.672437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e70…9047backed No77c160.89$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.89714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.41per pick55cpaid-81.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x129c…cd0bbacked Yes45c155.56$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28d0…3fcfbacked Yes17c147.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2aa…4a6cbacked Yes28c147.17$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+76.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x388a…8084backed Yes38c119.21$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.913100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+82.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2efe…ea7ebacked Yes17c117.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb03b…736dbacked No71c105.62$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c60…23a5backed No71c101.41$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07df…4279backed No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2eb…a3ecbacked Yes30c93.33$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x010e…aef7backed Yes26c77.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+132.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x345b…9f2ebacked Yes30c73.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+103.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f8b…a0c2backed Yes16c62.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd907…e2febacked Yes30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.85757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7765…43d0backed No70c56.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ad0…1ffcbacked Yes38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4616…e881backed Yes29c51.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.723100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+103.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e8d…9c26backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+53.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63ce…e3e5backed Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+56.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d70…9418backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07dd…a8bdbacked Yes34c44.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+48.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked No71c43.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.085251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+47.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc027…8f95backed No71c26.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8219…f1fabacked Yes41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x970a…9fe8backed No71c21.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c45…9c1dbacked No75c14.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.