Premier League · resolved market
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Europa League?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8135ad22a812be03ef25e492879c2c0542a7bc6377373154bf7e56bb06bb0797
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 31c | 9,018$2,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,263.82 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff3f…2b67backed Yes | 69c | 8,633$5,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,956.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 38c | 5,465$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,365.31 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 59c | 4,254$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496.91 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…6820backed Yes | 70c | 4,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9052…87ecbacked Yes | 45c | 3,333$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fce…6a98backed No | 34c | 3,246$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,140.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 64c | 1,612$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…ef25backed Yes | 69c | 1,241$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa096…aa97backed No | 34c | 1,237$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 66c | 1,014$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 44c | 853.79$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.7 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 69c | 820.42$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.09 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 55c | 637.74$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 32c | 582.19$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.89 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c88…c405backed Yes | 70c | 579.29$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked Yes | 69c | 445.55$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 53c | 412$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.36 | 183 | 62.3%114 W · 69 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 52c | 390.82$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.22 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 30c | 334.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.41 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8a92backed Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…fa21backed Yes | 69c | 289.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked Yes | 70c | 288.21$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.89 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…5fccbacked Yes | 68c | 261.38$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 65c | 246.35$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.13 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…7e92backed No | 30c | 204.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…4c27backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 32c | 135.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345b…9f2ebacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9917…4976backed Yes | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -53%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa117…1aa9backed No | 33c | 81.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…1da9backed Yes | 68c | 64.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa896…2043backed Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde2…1bb9backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x790a…cb76backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…70f9backed Yes | 68c | 32.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…c5b9backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e2…6addbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x642e…15f8backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f9…c3aebacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4432…9350backed No | 48c | 29.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…842bbacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2697…5771backed Yes | 69c | 26.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f329backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bda…9f1fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +278.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…0415backed Yes | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56bd…59e7backed Yes | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8075…af14backed Yes | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Europa League?this page
- Will AS Roma win the Europa League?No won
- Will Atalanta win the Europa League?Yes won
- Will Marseille win the Europa League?No won
- Will West Ham win the Europa League?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.