TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran military response by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,027
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$223,577

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,027 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes13c20,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.984214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes20c18,800$3,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,746.341127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes3c9,812$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.852050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes24c8,774$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.871643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0666…9f1bbacked Yes31c5,674$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.18728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed No77c4,067$3,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.5411559.1%68 W · 47 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b5a…024bbacked Yes9c3,998$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0912…24cbbacked Yes14c2,844$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…c7f9backed Yes23c2,700$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.41241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x105b…08f0backed Yes31c2,500$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe406…f3c0backed Yes10c2,451$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked No79c2,405$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.963246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe28a…8072backed No76c2,371$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.81662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes19c2,321$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.941926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x383a…c380backed No76c2,081$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.76580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc6…5881backed Yes24c2,047$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80bf…e42ebacked Yes10c2,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.881421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-58.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb33b…092fbacked Yes7c1,950$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed No75c1,870$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.038951.7%46 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No69c1,842$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.993850%19 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f00…fc5ebacked Yes21c1,818$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes22c1,712$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.939815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed No61c1,629$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.042759.3%16 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+69.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x063b…7328backed Yes29c1,562$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-44.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ab2…6539backed Yes19c1,545$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed No71c1,514$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.855644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…deafbacked Yes7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2736…3625backed Yes27c1,500$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-78.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed No72c1,484$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.642259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes14c1,464$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.8470%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6726…eabdbacked Yes20c1,456$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29580%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes13c1,431$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.9826423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfba9…3d42backed No71c1,409$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba68…ce61backed No77c1,366$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48a6…6bd0backed No75c1,328$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a08…2523backed Yes37c1,322$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.97560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+91.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f01…645ebacked Yes25c1,271$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.1740%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58d4…08d2backed Yes29c1,240$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1189…a9e0backed Yes20c1,238$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.67185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-92.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x717e…6498backed Yes10c1,183$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.743716.2%6 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-42.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2713…35aabacked Yes37c1,146$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee5…168cbacked No73c1,125$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No67c1,071$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.586726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No62c1,009$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.2951138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x021a…c19dbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b14…b84bbacked Yes26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ca…0a6ebacked Yes19c999.98$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-89.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d90…85aabacked Yes18c925.76$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.412045%9 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+42.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes10c919.75$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.982326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No69c907.34$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2856254.8%34 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+10.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4117…bf12backed Yes35c847.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98dc…3ffcbacked Yes45c811.05$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x114c…ed29backed Yes44c808.49$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaaa…44c4backed Yes24c800$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89a6…b855backed Yes50c777.92$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed No71c767.59$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.442347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes17c754.98$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.13141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff92…f9b5backed No71c751.19$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3391…ed51backed No77c733.51$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.58250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253f…edf9backed No68c728.7$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.731752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x797b…9793backed Yes26c721.77$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.63771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe172…1039backed No74c672.06$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.06366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a9e…83d9backed No78c660.33$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb8…7c0fbacked Yes26c630.58$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.081050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11d2…8731backed No63c620.83$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ba6…c060backed No80c616$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No76c599.98$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1464922.4%11 W · 38 L-9.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-67.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xbdc5…3f96backed Yes25c544.44$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13660%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0783…8e5abacked Yes9c534.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes11c501.12$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.535143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab6d…b458backed No72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+92.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes15c480.5$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.411723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43f6…1fefbacked No77c471.21$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.44540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No70c464.67$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.196137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb2…6c95backed No78c463.97$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.73475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf97b…d61dbacked Yes22c461.06$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.47540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc939…001bbacked No67c460.95$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0892…38f4backed Yes17c419$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f2…27d3backed Yes19c417.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.26560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2501…472cbacked Yes32c416.67$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x405b…5f3ebacked Yes23c414.42$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.121118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6e3…246bbacked No80c413.84$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…bf70backed Yes23c405$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.451428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081d…8c34backed No71c400$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.572360.9%14 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked No68c399.99$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1283520%7 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a79…f197backed Yes37c399.99$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa769…a3dabacked No76c394.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.74540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb0…eea0backed Yes32c393.75$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa136…2965backed Yes33c365.29$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-70.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ca…e5cfbacked No65c354.94$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7177…45e5backed Yes21c351.85$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.37714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-77.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8272…14bbbacked No68c342.97$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.361216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-64.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No73c341.71$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8416246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe0d2…c7bcbacked Yes46c322.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501741.2%7 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb61…a3aabacked No74c320.57$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.35475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+88.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2365…8eb9backed Yes36c318.39$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.89540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+205.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1492…97dabacked No80c312.5$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x360c…123ebacked Yes22c305.59$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.62911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-72.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2dd…95f1backed Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Yes16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48339.1%3 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-47.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.