TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump nominate RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$940,094
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$983,976

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $940,094 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No7c38,830$2,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,546.69533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes40c31,315$12,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,820.823639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No32c27,783$8,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,935.0635519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No21c25,240$5,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,213.087331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe877…bb43backed Yes41c24,345$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,345.291414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Yes49c20,511$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,511.18757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed No55c20,493$11,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,213.295834.5%20 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes32c17,954$5,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,232.3313537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d0…636dbacked No67c17,052$11,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,492.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No2c16,346$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.1711541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes52c15,900$8,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,612.182227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes33c15,897$5,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,707.5617225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No0c13,555$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4410211.8%12 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes57c12,946$7,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,551.144729.8%14 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed No65c10,621$6,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,894.441553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a9…48b9backed No8c10,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800560%3 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick12cpaid+427.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9962…aab6backed No65c9,000$5,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,850333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes18c8,800$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,245.888453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked No67c8,334$5,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6151060%6 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes42c8,071$3,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,658.781118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No63c7,931$5,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,024.0615155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95a3…046ebacked No8c7,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick9cpaid+197.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes30c6,543$1,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,596.382626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+79.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c6,415$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.832400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes56c6,337$3,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,758.6211848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0dbb…fd16backed No2c6,238$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.04728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76e5…4a8ebacked Yes42c6,009$2,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,468.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed No66c5,828$3,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,839.545851.7%30 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes64c5,803$3,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,095.9532029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes35c4,393$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,855.372454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes48c4,226$2,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.028750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No0c4,056$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x899b…fbdfbacked No68c4,002$2,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,716.7630%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed Yes34c4,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6404052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27fd…0f40backed Yes29c3,480$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,470.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d7d…928abacked Yes16c3,452$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,902.021030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed Yes47c3,418$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.914247.6%20 W · 22 L+6.9wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+68.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No58c3,275$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892.0921634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,89015646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No68c3,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0504346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea8…aa48backed Yes40c2,715$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.36475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+130.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc545…dc80backed Yes44c2,595$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.982142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed Yes39c2,528$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.069746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe367…f235backed Yes44c2,500$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,401.752133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed No8c2,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002646.2%12 W · 14 L+8.3wins+0.32per pick14cpaid+308.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x3a20…c0bcbacked No58c2,500$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No59c2,247$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.854542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No62c2,230$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.716854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes31c2,211$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.219142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb826…e3ddbacked Yes47c2,152$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes44c2,008$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.892842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32d0…2418backed No54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0802240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2207254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x213a…57f2backed Yes48c1,989$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.681136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8219…f1fabacked Yes42c1,906$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.683033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-43.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7d5…4503backed Yes50c1,806$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x317e…37eabacked No66c1,725$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.57616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-75.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc85…b33dbacked Yes17c1,698$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+497%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No23c1,687$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.666251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No62c1,643$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.291643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked No30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4506033.3%20 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe55d…802cbacked Yes42c1,500$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8701100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7e…08ccbacked No58c1,500$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d0…ade5backed Yes34c1,471$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…fb45backed Yes42c1,455$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.64650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes73c1,455$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.113525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91b0…f0b6backed Yes35c1,363$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.641560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+32.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes35c1,360$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.465038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No63c1,322$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.812531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5be…a613backed Yes38c1,306$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.821090%9 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.38per pick52cpaid+96.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xef6d…9bd2backed No54c1,285$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.82347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e6…50aebacked No8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+108%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked No54c1,250$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.491838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes33c1,250$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.491811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-71.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeece…8b06backed Yes44c1,140$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.322100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3824…8f3fbacked Yes42c1,110$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No7c1,050$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.967441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Yes32c1,000$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6802638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes78c1,000$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2257146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x444e…01d0backed Yes28c1,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7204042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes25c1,000$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7551741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes32c1,000$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6801717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-54%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x569e…67dbbacked No71c999.99$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe25e…0aa5backed Yes37c999.99$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.991361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+78%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed88…e838backed No58c999.99$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.99771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x684b…0601backed No65c961$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.142045%9 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes41c960$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.36432.8%21 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No52c952.52$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.198843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes38c845.26$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.8299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77cf…0e71backed No72c800$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5762729.6%8 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb4e…faa3backed Yes60c790.3$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.21887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick59cpaid+49.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No17c773.54$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9615124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9c…e78fbacked No65c769.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-73.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2a4…7bf2backed Yes39c758.68$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.18933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c1…b697backed Yes42c714$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No58c688$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.978057.5%46 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a25…2fa6backed No26c680.91$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.042835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+93.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No51c666$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.3313540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes34c650$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4293935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.