Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Bobby Jindal for HHS Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabcc3eed397a203fbc9e4b99fdf37c42f7015fe3fe1cff090d58574d47496685
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12b…bbf5backed Yes | 3c | 1,687$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 12c | 1,543$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.82 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…ff65backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 22c | 1,363$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.38 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,240$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed No | 79c | 1,095$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +78%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 15c | 1,082$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 1,013$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.69 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 14c | 671.27$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 77c | 410$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 20c | 387.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 5c | 257$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 236.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 22c | 236$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 24c | 222$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 75c | 205$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…8cd7backed Yes | 12c | 203.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…6a27backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked Yes | 7c | 160.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57b…40d2backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 21c | 87.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…bfa4backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…ae23backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…2e0ebacked No | 75c | 32.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Bobby Jindal for HHS Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Ben Carson for HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Brian Blase for HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Eric Hargan for HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Joe Grogan for HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Paul Mango for HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.