Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Ben Carson for HHS Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cecdaedf6386e8e848c830bed6c8e18762e10d6c6a864254ba9c5d0cc8b9e3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed No | 63c | 9,000$5,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,348.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +78%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 29c | 7,479$2,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,191.16 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 53c | 4,288$2,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,271.4 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 21c | 3,201$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.42 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 5c | 2,913$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.44 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 63c | 2,907$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.41 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa953…387abacked Yes | 14c | 2,841$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 19c | 2,581$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.62 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 53c | 2,527$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.43 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 47c | 2,482$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.39 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes | 35c | 2,285$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.44 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 2c | 2,222$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c9…b44ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,701$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 36c | 1,435$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.13 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,391$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 26c | 1,255$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,202$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.7 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 919.68$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 915.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 32c | 790.71$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.31 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…76febacked Yes | 2c | 632.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…1ddebacked Yes | 3c | 538.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed No | 53c | 460$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.92 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…fd9fbacked Yes | 59c | 412.61$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 47c | 387.09$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.71 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 49c | 303.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.95 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 47c | 300$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.7 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 76c | 295$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 57c | 279.99$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 32c | 250$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 6c | 248$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.87 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.32per pick | 14cpaid | +308.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…42f8backed Yes | 41c | 244.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 46c | 229$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eec…ba97backed Yes | 54c | 225$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…7f24backed No | 46c | 225$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…92fbbacked No | 46c | 221$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…b2c3backed Yes | 54c | 221$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 42c | 196.12$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed Yes | 50c | 183.37$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 8c | 178.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…baa7backed Yes | 58c | 130.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…8c3abacked Yes | 52c | 124.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…04ffbacked No | 47c | 107.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x544c…430cbacked No | 54c | 106.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc05…be00backed No | 47c | 100.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…1191backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 61c | 95.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…fe46backed No | 55c | 91.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 64c | 82.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86e…4755backed Yes | 59c | 71.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 41c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…e81bbacked Yes | 50c | 43.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8850…4f45backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d2…9c24backed No | 53c | 37.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…626bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…6a1bbacked Yes | 50c | 30.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7a…4df0backed Yes | 46c | 23.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Ben Carson for HHS Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Bobby Jindal for HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Brian Blase for HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Eric Hargan for HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Joe Grogan for HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Paul Mango for HHS Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.