World Politics · resolved market
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43419b262b7a6e795bd1432b369153a0dbdad5625678bd3e21664eb50dc3ea19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,175,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,092,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,175,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 775 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 76c | 48,248$36,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,594.19 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f5…af66backed No | 8c | 30,256$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 4c | 25,822$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.77 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 51c | 24,691$12,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,118.8 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…64a8backed No | 10c | 23,998$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,506.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 1c | 22,168$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.49 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 48c | 18,548$8,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,717.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b4…9764backed No | 12c | 15,666$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked No | 14c | 14,445$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e8…d686backed No | 9c | 11,544$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa764…2798backed No | 16c | 10,915$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…a736backed No | 59c | 10,155$6,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,024.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 48c | 9,974$4,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,827.27 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 17c | 9,351$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.93 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 14c | 8,553$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.08 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0281…9ef0backed No | 5c | 8,445$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc8…951abacked No | 5c | 8,223$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c5…d5a0backed No | 45c | 7,962$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,550.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 14c | 7,701$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.3 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5991…218dbacked No | 14c | 7,308$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…3d9abacked No | 8c | 7,209$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf728…2283backed No | 11c | 7,162$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 74c | 6,755$4,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.06 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb96a…18d4backed No | 31c | 6,696$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 6,262$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.86 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5da…5c84backed No | 18c | 6,182$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf344…063dbacked No | 40c | 6,142$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,429.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked No | 8c | 6,104$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.26 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…5374backed No | 16c | 5,665$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x346e…9d44backed No | 16c | 5,628$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed No | 14c | 5,458$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…42ffbacked No | 7c | 5,330$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2118…ee2dbacked No | 8c | 5,206$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…bae0backed No | 15c | 5,141$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked No | 13c | 4,838$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.43 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x706f…605fbacked No | 16c | 4,802$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb381…d0fbbacked No | 59c | 4,632$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…289ebacked No | 9c | 4,519$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…9bd4backed No | 5c | 4,409$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8baf…3675backed No | 23c | 4,375$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked No | 15c | 4,373$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…4694backed No | 17c | 4,353$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…ddf3backed No | 14c | 4,237$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…dcadbacked No | 26c | 4,113$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…a303backed No | 16c | 4,046$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4a…cacabacked No | 11c | 3,847$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd369…9e8ebacked No | 18c | 3,795$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df9…a58ebacked No | 16c | 3,705$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e01…4bd7backed No | 8c | 3,690$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e1…8f17backed No | 10c | 3,571$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…e812backed No | 18c | 3,548$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 12c | 3,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.99 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 45c | 3,354$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.75 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 42c | 3,231$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…b4cdbacked No | 11c | 3,194$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 13c | 3,172$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.81 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…e7a2backed No | 21c | 3,091$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 47c | 3,079$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed No | 47c | 3,045$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…970abacked No | 48c | 2,915$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 39c | 2,862$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.32 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed No | 13c | 2,781$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…7bcfbacked Yes | 54c | 2,779$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 5c | 2,771$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…801bbacked No | 18c | 2,769$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f9…e52abacked No | 3c | 2,700$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd94…88bcbacked No | 9c | 2,685$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…dc27backed No | 13c | 2,502$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…e62bbacked No | 25c | 2,387$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 12c | 2,384$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.09 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741f…f6cabacked No | 9c | 2,357$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…9045backed No | 13c | 2,324$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…e0d6backed No | 28c | 2,312$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 13c | 2,293$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.61 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…ed4ebacked No | 16c | 2,281$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 14c | 2,265$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.49 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -79%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…857ebacked No | 5c | 2,252$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9341…8489backed No | 28c | 2,246$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…8d4bbacked No | 23c | 2,191$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…d95cbacked No | 23c | 2,140$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1387…f8cbbacked No | 5c | 2,135$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…3394backed No | 5c | 2,116$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a69…1057backed No | 14c | 2,109$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed Yes | 64c | 2,079$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 50c | 2,014$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.83 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…874bbacked No | 12c | 2,001$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…0048backed No | 5c | 2,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…3d0abacked No | 16c | 2,000$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…39b7backed Yes | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked No | 6c | 2,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 40c | 1,892$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.46 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…8f27backed No | 11c | 1,882$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6913…04a8backed No | 3c | 1,837$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…e583backed No | 5c | 1,830$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…66d4backed No | 8c | 1,828$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 8c | 1,813$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x280c…5bb0backed No | 6c | 1,782$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…cd7ebacked No | 6c | 1,744$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked No | 21c | 1,727$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…8f61backed No | 7c | 1,727$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.