Us Politics · resolved market
Will Nikki Haley drop out in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1025d19c07331e80f3416f812642677fb57fa393b5865f17b9082024ce3d7bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 5c | 11,294$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.67 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…330fbacked No | 50c | 8,449$4,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,222.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…4c1abacked Yes | 50c | 8,444$4,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,222 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +74%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…b6acbacked No | 17c | 1,152$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a7…9933backed No | 18c | 966.67$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b76…1573backed No | 20c | 846.54$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442b…5410backed No | 22c | 722$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 19c | 593.55$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.68 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79e1…320abacked No | 25c | 540.74$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfc…2515backed No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed No | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d9…87c0backed No | 21c | 486.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…14bbbacked No | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed No | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…0abebacked No | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…f880backed No | 17c | 233.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 78c | 206.54$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 15c | 87.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed No | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…056fbacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +299.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17fc…2b02backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd505…0eddbacked Yes | 80c | 48.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nikki Haley drop out in March?this page
- Will Nikki Haley drop out in April?No won
- Will Nikki Haley drop out in February?No won
- Will Nikki Haley drop out in May?No won
- Will Nikki Haley not drop out before the Republican National Convention?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.