TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Space · resolved market

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$604,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$623,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $604,511 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 996 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Space
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96b5…f5e7backed No23c22,617$5,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,410.241127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No20c22,222$4,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,777.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1975…f07bbacked Yes77c19,599$14,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,999.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No24c16,669$3,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,746.73837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No21c15,335$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,084.55450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+79%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb9a…55a3backed No20c14,134$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,333.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+152.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6597…53b3backed No23c13,954$3,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,752.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+335.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes22c13,948$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd6d…f860backed No45c11,712$5,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,413.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3c…434fbacked No27c11,117$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,116.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+85.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked No26c10,892$2,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,042.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+91.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes75c10,684$7,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,989.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f8…0d34backed No24c10,667$2,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,095.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+314.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa221…c70abacked Yes2c9,518$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a7…b518backed Yes78c8,136$6,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,386.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5964…776bbacked No23c7,042$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,392.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+186.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67c4…2272backed No29c6,959$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,958.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+247.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes77c6,885$5,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,313.78520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-62%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47db…fcf2backed Yes76c6,611$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No23c6,472$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,985.171513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x073a…8fd7backed No18c6,203$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,086.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95a3…046ebacked Yes5c6,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+176.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No19c5,435$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,382.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+158.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed No25c5,301$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,980.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+100.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fec…2b67backed No25c5,100$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,825.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No22c5,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,879.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+108.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed No22c5,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,899.961050%5 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf778…2f09backed No23c5,000$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,849.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf892…7f58backed No22c4,609$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,593.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+353.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes77c4,600$3,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,544.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57d7…0a81backed Yes80c4,521$3,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,614.910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79d4…6d24backed Yes74c4,200$3,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,107.95366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac6…59efbacked No23c4,164$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,190.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+327.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x856f…e1d7backed No21c4,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,139.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+132.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No18c4,000$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,275.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+247.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4a…5961backed Yes79c3,891$3,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,062.820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No26c3,822$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,829.281136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+285.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b18…838cbacked No27c3,793$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,771.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+271.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb088…683dbacked No23c3,758$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,905.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+46.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No23c3,643$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,800.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+332.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6a…bee7backed Yes80c3,600$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,88010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes72c3,552$2,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.9650%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cda…2ee7backed Yes74c3,526$2,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,609.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c1…5f7bbacked No24c3,500$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,661.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+317.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c76…f344backed No29c3,407$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,406.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+240.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed Yes71c3,390$2,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,406.6120%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed No38c3,319$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+159.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97eb…a1d2backed Yes75c3,312$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,480.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed No21c3,311$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,611.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+373.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…7f26backed No22c3,276$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,564.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+205%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed No22c3,118$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,425.221275%9 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+88.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No16c3,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5101100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+512.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c29…5267backed Yes79c3,000$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,37010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07a6…2e31backed Yes78c2,898$2,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,270.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84b0…4940backed Yes77c2,865$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,205.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce06…0bb0backed Yes77c2,862$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,21710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…310cbacked Yes70c2,859$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb29…625bbacked No26c2,814$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,089.631020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes77c2,758$2,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,112.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed Yes77c2,742$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,101.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x171f…95fbbacked Yes77c2,720$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,105.3720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc51…4287backed Yes76c2,632$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b6d…08b7backed Yes76c2,599$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2030…dc25backed Yes80c2,499$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd0e…3602backed No18c2,345$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+454.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabfe…79d3backed Yes75c2,296$1,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bfd…b5f3backed Yes1c2,220$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2b…ed08backed No23c2,182$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+332.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf73…20f2backed Yes78c2,155$1,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4da6…b8e5backed Yes78c2,097$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9654…a94ebacked Yes76c2,082$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed No23c2,078$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+344.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No23c2,057$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.892839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+70.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bf1…5014backed No18c2,057$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,681.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+447.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd7…f8b3backed Yes76c2,048$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e0…13a8backed No27c2,033$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+271.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7990…c870backed Yes75c2,028$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0aba…eea1backed Yes76c2,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Yes77c2,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…e414backed Yes79c1,995$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No22c1,945$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+90.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa45a…76b0backed No19c1,922$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+415.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x199d…589abacked Yes80c1,875$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3399…720bbacked Yes77c1,857$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3997…e141backed No25c1,821$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+303.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No53c1,788$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.221540%6 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4854…40bcbacked Yes78c1,788$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55af…34aabacked Yes78c1,733$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3dc…fc54backed Yes77c1,707$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeca…7377backed Yes79c1,648$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06d0…059abacked Yes78c1,646$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.7320%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab64…d070backed No27c1,564$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+273.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No24c1,527$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+321.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x089a…38fcbacked Yes80c1,506$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes79c1,475$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7865…28a8backed Yes78c1,473$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb295…4ee4backed Yes77c1,362$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No25c1,346$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda24…6cf5backed Yes76c1,316$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6098…599fbacked Yes76c1,316$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.