Chess · resolved market
Will Hikaru Nakamura win FIDE Candidates 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa339d5a23e004e0bc97edbb8acaf800caab9080af5159351999d2c5a67b5289a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 13c | 8,883$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 23c | 8,764$2,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,048.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…18bfbacked Yes | 7c | 8,166$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 32c | 7,980$2,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,586.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 15c | 2,762$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed No | 75c | 2,555$1,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 9c | 1,591$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.51 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…cdcfbacked Yes | 3c | 969$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 40c | 612.5$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 25c | 450$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…c283backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 34c | 369.73$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…e378backed No | 76c | 292.11$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 75c | 273$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f06…f20ebacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win FIDE Candidates 2024?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win FIDE Candidates 2024?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win FIDE Candidates 2024?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win FIDE Candidates 2024?No won
- Will another player win FIDE Candidates 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.