Chess · resolved market
Will Fabiano Caruana win FIDE Candidates 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aadb728350ee642de8f3c8d15a4377be42dfd903a8bcfededf1a2ddf3f8d01a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 26c | 4,223$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.62 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed Yes | 16c | 3,100$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 22c | 2,745$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…18bfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,912$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 24c | 1,062$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.63 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…46d5backed Yes | 10c | 963.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73e…5fdfbacked Yes | 68c | 351.77$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb7…692cbacked Yes | 36c | 168.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…cdcfbacked Yes | 41c | 98.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee55…63dbbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0364…8061backed Yes | 33c | 49.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf2…081bbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fabiano Caruana win FIDE Candidates 2024?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win FIDE Candidates 2024?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win FIDE Candidates 2024?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win FIDE Candidates 2024?No won
- Will another player win FIDE Candidates 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.