Movies · resolved market
Will Anatomy of a Fall win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef3771c980c235b274fb8876c9f2cac273a63f404469fbed32193943d882b590
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 48c | 9,740$4,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,642.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 61c | 5,101$3,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.78 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 59c | 4,209$2,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 52c | 4,091$2,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.48 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 51c | 900$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 69c | 636$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 71c | 609$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.02 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 65c | 606.95$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.85 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…7ebfbacked Yes | 69c | 578$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 52c | 555$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.49 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 42c | 422$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 69c | 339.96$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488a…2c90backed Yes | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed No | 56c | 222$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 69c | 202.9$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b99…d04dbacked No | 30c | 202.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…385bbacked No | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…7dc6backed Yes | 49c | 103.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…d6c5backed Yes | 72c | 49.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadde…eb78backed Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anatomy of a Fall win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay?this page
- Will Past Lives win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay?No won
- Will The Holdovers win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.