TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,075,558
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,379,877

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,075,558 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,442 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06ab…d376backed No1c502,584$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,039.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f78…f36dbacked No1c400,572$4,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,812.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87f2…db07backed No1c398,939$5,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,889.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa853…0acebacked No1c309,217$4,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,601.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85a6…2b72backed No0c250,781$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb2a…a436backed No0c223,278$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes28c205,743$57,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148,406.842015%3 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69a4…bba9backed No0c195,180$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.74156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-90.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b92…8bb4backed No0c170,211$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.41612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5678…5ffabacked No1c158,744$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-58.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…745cbacked No0c128,091$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.582133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+75.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38af…2b76backed No0c124,816$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb0…acccbacked No0c112,682$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db7…1132backed No1c89,167$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb26e…4a36backed No2c87,850$2,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,121.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb96a…18d4backed No2c87,265$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No47c73,153$34,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,022.852050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked No66c56,953$37,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,356.313770.3%26 W · 11 L+10.0wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+109.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x2326…ab0ebacked No2c56,066$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.93887.5%7 W · 1 L+4.5wins+0.57per pick31cpaid+264.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes54c54,187$29,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,907.9126423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee2c…afeebacked No0c54,083$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d8…f064backed No11c53,827$5,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,714.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04cb…c26fbacked Yes34c53,208$17,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,237.85475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+114%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ee…9589backed No0c52,533$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+54.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd539…7567backed No1c52,270$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4854…40bcbacked No3c50,760$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9206…5b3ebacked No60c47,229$28,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,435.9330%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9345…4642backed No1c46,763$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cd…6541backed No0c45,852$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb514…d3febacked No11c45,635$4,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,853.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No5c44,930$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.22270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x340e…2547backed No0c43,425$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ce6…227bbacked No0c43,241$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf336…c654backed No1c42,585$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed No4c41,901$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,809.123243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No0c41,100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.99637.5%36 W · 60 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68cb…a3eebacked No0c41,057$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa30b…96e5backed No1c40,194$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f8…ca0dbacked No13c39,501$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5093…793dbacked No0c39,500$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02cb…ae38backed Yes34c38,631$13,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,413.691747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1525…85a7backed No2c38,070$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x679c…f78bbacked No2c36,955$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefc0…47d0backed No2c35,361$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.73450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4125…4897backed No3c33,396$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+41.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed No41c33,270$13,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,693.49837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445f…d91cbacked No1c32,476$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a1…cec7backed No1c31,643$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes37c30,098$11,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,887.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b29…5967backed Yes35c29,854$10,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,552.941070%7 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.39per pick31cpaid+156.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfde3…c59bbacked No0c29,718$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No61c29,586$18,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,028.510150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x969c…87a5backed No0c29,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34e3…6adcbacked No7c28,170$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked No0c28,026$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.373312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c7…32cbbacked No4c27,938$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.161546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96fc…6119backed No6c27,439$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.642835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc360…0c46backed No9c27,284$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e3…bb55backed No20c26,174$5,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,304.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe64f…44a5backed No65c25,388$16,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,586.761225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x456b…eb7ebacked Yes36c24,780$8,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,914.671747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89ad…b45bbacked No2c24,493$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.3660%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…a695backed No1c23,744$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e4…225abacked No0c23,600$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked No1c23,340$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1927…cc91backed No0c23,333$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23dc…17bbbacked No1c22,985$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x684b…0601backed No0c22,374$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.77728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-53%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb182…005fbacked No1c22,148$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5310…a500backed Yes50c21,235$10,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,722.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78a4…f997backed No1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227a…b0b5backed No1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2804…2dfabacked No1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c3a…f541backed No1c19,863$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.682927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No6c19,815$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.9935819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a5e…3e95backed No3c19,126$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.051241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…5f47backed No0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ad7…4d49backed Yes37c18,713$7,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,710.361050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe656…0647backed No4c18,482$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbed…aa02backed No3c18,104$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.39100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc085…82fabacked No4c17,231$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.716929%20 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed No61c17,068$10,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,445.354030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b84…bae0backed No4c17,025$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.51711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-61.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a67…09d9backed No2c16,912$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f8…3a3cbacked No7c16,735$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff9b…f732backed No1c16,622$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No52c15,261$8,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,003.742142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5fc3…265abacked No0c15,258$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2372…8881backed No1c15,209$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.181127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b21…cecfbacked No7c15,129$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d9d…17a9backed No3c15,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5be9…282dbacked No0c14,961$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes46c14,829$6,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,988.344214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e4…1009backed No5c14,822$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.021136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f8…398dbacked No1c14,354$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed No1c14,242$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.242512%3 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad01…53e4backed No2c14,112$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.39520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-67.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f33…b7dabacked No0c14,081$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe489…02c0backed No5c13,819$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b3…40bebacked No24c13,650$3,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,220.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.