NBA · resolved market
NBA Play-In: Warriors vs Kings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa86cd342bc22094315d8f006b2f7fed31bd91361cd1f5ef46e24b4193164d7cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Warriors, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Warriors | 7c | 10,132$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.92 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Warriors | 56c | 5,697$3,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,163.45 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Kings | 45c | 5,192$2,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.53 | 155 | 51%79 W · 76 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Warriors | 56c | 1,000$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Kings | 43c | 695$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.15 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Kings | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Kings | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked Warriors | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Warriors | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Warriors | 57c | 152.91$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed Kings | 44c | 140.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.91 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865e…3013backed Kings | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…8b7bbacked Warriors | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Kings | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.