Movies · resolved market
Will Lily Gladstone win the Oscar for Best Actress?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ae978a8bc3b245e2db7776d102aaa3a7a1e9778e36b28a40bac56892fcd3c42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07b8…3842backed Yes | 61c | 6,763$4,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,095.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 61c | 2,869$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 61c | 2,454$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.06 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…6820backed Yes | 69c | 1,761$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 38c | 1,392$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 40c | 1,221$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.52 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…0b98backed Yes | 66c | 996.21$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 45c | 831.81$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.49 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed No | 39c | 315.56$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…a83bbacked Yes | 66c | 301.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 72c | 278.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 68c | 250$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 39c | 222$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacda…1d8bbacked Yes | 40c | 220$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 30c | 205.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb28…bd69backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…2045backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…69a4backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 65c | 119.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 69c | 111$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…684dbacked No | 48c | 96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5180…a1ffbacked Yes | 62c | 77.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…a217backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 41c | 46.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadde…eb78backed Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…b18cbacked Yes | 65c | 35.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…fefbbacked No | 39c | 32.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lily Gladstone win the Oscar for Best Actress?this page
- Will Annette Bening win the Oscar for Best Actress?No won
- Will Carey Mulligan win the Oscar for Best Actress?No won
- Will Emma Stone win the Oscar for Best Actress?Yes won
- Will Sandra Hüller win the Oscar for Best Actress?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.