Movies · resolved market
Will Emma Stone win the Oscar for Best Actress?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29d322f2e1c811a1730f27a9a3dfc4f1f16088879779545534c3e834ca72652e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07b8…3842backed No | 59c | 5,030$2,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,953.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 38c | 2,331$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 36c | 2,223$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.44 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 61c | 1,815$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.26 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…0a6dbacked Yes | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…f052backed Yes | 34c | 1,282$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.87 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a4…8611backed No | 46c | 1,235$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked No | 67c | 937.17$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.73 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…8de7backed Yes | 35c | 862.86$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 37c | 850$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.6 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 66c | 791.32$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.05 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c61…15c0backed Yes | 57c | 749.26$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488a…2c90backed No | 45c | 627$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea3…d844backed Yes | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 56c | 559.03$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.62 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…b027backed Yes | 35c | 526.31$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 70c | 463$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.1 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 56c | 408.25$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 66c | 400$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…5372backed Yes | 40c | 307.25$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 39c | 230$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.3 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed No | 41c | 222$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e0…de9abacked No | 46c | 180.43$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 58c | 175.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b99…d04dbacked Yes | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…1f72backed Yes | 60c | 158.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 71c | 149$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…56cdbacked Yes | 60c | 129.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcd…bc2bbacked No | 70c | 128.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 36c | 100.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…684dbacked No | 54c | 96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…7dc6backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Yes | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…3caebacked Yes | 74c | 74.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…5135backed Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e9…b211backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…6120backed Yes | 35c | 53.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…ba51backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d86…db78backed Yes | 57c | 49.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…ed41backed Yes | 59c | 43.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…3ab2backed Yes | 37c | 40.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e6…d35ebacked Yes | 58c | 37.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…c172backed Yes | 71c | 36.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…fe42backed Yes | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…e450backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Emma Stone win the Oscar for Best Actress?this page
- Will Annette Bening win the Oscar for Best Actress?No won
- Will Carey Mulligan win the Oscar for Best Actress?No won
- Will Lily Gladstone win the Oscar for Best Actress?No won
- Will Sandra Hüller win the Oscar for Best Actress?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.