Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x229c4674926a0d042e5f02f74d6ec4c6afe63847b0fdfb6c63fe18ae338b2628
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,345,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,316,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,345,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 616 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 59c | 49,487$29,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,111.03 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…00d8backed Yes | 50c | 37,049$18,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,693.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 7c | 34,850$2,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,577.51 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 67c | 32,400$21,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,611.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 62c | 30,156$18,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,547.64 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…a718backed Yes | 33c | 24,802$8,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,271.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…5fffbacked Yes | 15c | 24,000$3,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,659.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…6569backed Yes | 9c | 21,848$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 13c | 21,211$2,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800.91 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 5c | 20,000$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.28 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4780…348ebacked Yes | 34c | 16,937$5,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,716.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 70c | 16,273$11,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,957.76 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 66c | 15,908$10,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,387.77 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked No | 66c | 15,162$9,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,222.33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc1…12e7backed Yes | 40c | 14,931$6,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,015.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…a3f8backed No | 64c | 14,480$9,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,190.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 12c | 14,345$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.43 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…b6d0backed Yes | 40c | 14,109$5,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,610.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed Yes | 27c | 13,017$3,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,464.2 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Yes | 35c | 12,820$4,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,513.62 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 1c | 12,770$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.17 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…61e6backed Yes | 23c | 11,490$2,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,614.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456b…eb7ebacked Yes | 32c | 10,987$3,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,478.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 69c | 10,366$7,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,197.39 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…db7ebacked Yes | 33c | 10,364$3,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,372.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…fce2backed No | 52c | 10,045$5,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,801.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…b59bbacked Yes | 36c | 10,033$3,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,652.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…a55cbacked Yes | 7c | 9,990$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc5…3f96backed Yes | 7c | 9,903$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…cdcfbacked Yes | 21c | 9,780$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 21c | 8,563$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.24 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 14c | 8,542$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 17c | 8,528$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…750bbacked No | 77c | 8,076$6,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,874.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a20…c0bcbacked No | 70c | 8,000$5,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,384.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…2125backed No | 64c | 7,810$4,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,839.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 13c | 7,662$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.27 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…1039backed No | 66c | 7,335$4,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,470.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 13c | 7,299$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.83 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 75c | 6,997$5,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.22 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed No | 59c | 6,351$3,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,583.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…2128backed Yes | 64c | 6,285$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df4…3fdcbacked Yes | 5c | 6,089$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…0061backed Yes | 15c | 5,824$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed No | 52c | 5,513$2,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,630.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +59%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ff…e4c4backed Yes | 36c | 5,385$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 20c | 5,283$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.53 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 12c | 5,268$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 28c | 5,253$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.98 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…909abacked Yes | 37c | 5,143$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 6c | 5,082$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.27 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…7469backed Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 78c | 4,733$3,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…6078backed Yes | 41c | 4,602$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 65c | 4,594$2,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.28 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…14bbbacked Yes | 17c | 4,410$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.39 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 63c | 4,135$2,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.19 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 7c | 4,064$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.95 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed No | 63c | 4,038$2,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes | 39c | 3,985$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557.07 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 71c | 3,942$2,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.79 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b68…b668backed No | 68c | 3,929$2,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…f637backed Yes | 37c | 3,873$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…b961backed Yes | 8c | 3,832$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…336cbacked No | 71c | 3,679$2,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…677fbacked Yes | 15c | 3,623$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.43 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 38c | 3,600$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.92 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 31c | 3,433$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.26 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34e7…6c5cbacked No | 57c | 3,390$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 37c | 3,247$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.26 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes | 41c | 3,032$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…746abacked No | 65c | 2,965$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.33 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…ddf6backed Yes | 35c | 2,857$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 74c | 2,817$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.74 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 32c | 2,754$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.26 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d72…cca4backed Yes | 6c | 2,750$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210f…9d6abacked Yes | 6c | 2,749$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.94 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 44c | 2,696$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.85 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…0a6ebacked Yes | 34c | 2,631$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.73 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 6c | 2,594$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…9b44backed Yes | 31c | 2,573$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 34c | 2,559$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a5…84bcbacked No | 67c | 2,519$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…2a72backed Yes | 15c | 2,456$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…af7bbacked No | 61c | 2,444$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 63c | 2,443$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.47 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 38c | 2,386$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.42 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 48c | 2,259$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.07 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x948e…92b5backed Yes | 15c | 2,196$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked No | 52c | 2,173$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 13c | 2,145$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.51 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed Yes | 5c | 2,074$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…e4a8backed Yes | 48c | 2,064$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d93…1cffbacked Yes | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 35c | 1,952$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.69 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…00b3backed Yes | 38c | 1,930$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.16 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 18c | 1,882$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.02 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.