Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a22e4c575aaecc6ecdea5e0678bd94c2d58808169fef4990f0dfdaaec7bcf43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,710,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,710,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c53…8052backed Yes | 0c | 224,018$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed27…14cbbacked Yes | 0c | 218,965$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…149abacked Yes | 0c | 218,965$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x464f…3ef7backed Yes | 0c | 218,965$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…3836backed Yes | 0c | 181,473$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53da…8b71backed Yes | 0c | 175,172$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db6…5dd1backed Yes | 0c | 175,172$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bea…1d43backed Yes | 0c | 175,172$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7507…71e3backed Yes | 0c | 172,875$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc47…aae1backed Yes | 0c | 138,300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…6362backed Yes | 0c | 71,903$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…e395backed Yes | 0c | 59,419$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dea…4188backed Yes | 0c | 40,169$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2e…db15backed Yes | 0c | 40,169$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe1…db1fbacked Yes | 0c | 38,452$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…a3e6backed Yes | 0c | 37,452$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x580e…4a6bbacked Yes | 0c | 37,452$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…7199backed Yes | 0c | 37,452$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f5…b904backed Yes | 0c | 37,452$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc72c…73b5backed Yes | 0c | 37,452$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…55a5backed Yes | 0c | 37,452$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5f…3f91backed Yes | 0c | 37,452$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…2f47backed Yes | 0c | 30,852$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd99e…f580backed Yes | 0c | 27,252$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7906…f93dbacked Yes | 0c | 27,102$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cc…bab1backed Yes | 0c | 27,002$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…a12abacked Yes | 0c | 26,652$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eba…0505backed Yes | 0c | 26,652$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fe…8c7dbacked Yes | 0c | 26,652$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc59…85a8backed Yes | 0c | 26,652$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3638…eddabacked Yes | 0c | 25,384$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…041bbacked Yes | 2c | 8,100$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed Yes | 9c | 2,300$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,546$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.63 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 62c | 1,266$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.37 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 30c | 1,075$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.48 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 21c | 1,074$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.83 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…819cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,023$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 29c | 869.15$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.15 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 50c | 725.22$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.89 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…c007backed Yes | 18c | 604.22$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d0…ea2cbacked Yes | 20c | 536.57$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 17c | 491.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1527…15a5backed Yes | 61c | 491.01$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 20c | 485.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…0cd4backed Yes | 48c | 472.32$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.67 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 27c | 439.65$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.1 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 21c | 408.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 407.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 18c | 392.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 9c | 388$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +251.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…2cb1backed Yes | 5c | 361.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…dcdfbacked Yes | 5c | 327.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Yes | 39c | 296.19$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe51b…d02bbacked Yes | 24c | 294.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 19c | 276$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 38c | 263.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8621…140ebacked Yes | 54c | 260$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 16c | 251$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…c8d0backed Yes | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 24c | 246.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…629ebacked Yes | 20c | 215.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +421.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 17c | 211$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab99…7ac1backed Yes | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…571dbacked Yes | 54c | 190.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…5d25backed Yes | 18c | 169.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 54c | 166.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 14c | 158.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81cf…6f32backed Yes | 65c | 154.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 22c | 154.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…bdbabacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…15efbacked No | 39c | 133.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +297.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c2…aa80backed Yes | 25c | 133.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1846…4727backed Yes | 77c | 127.82$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…efb3backed No | 61c | 106.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…13b1backed Yes | 57c | 105.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…7119backed No | 71c | 105.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ad…845ebacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1090…fe44backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +306.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabc5…5e68backed Yes | 13c | 98.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…10ccbacked Yes | 36c | 95.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Yes | 63c | 91.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…c3bebacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 17c | 78.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 61c | 73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…1993backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes | 29c | 66.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…30d9backed Yes | 17c | 62.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…1116backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa316…780cbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…c475backed Yes | 36c | 54.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…e9ebbacked Yes | 58c | 50.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…bdeebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…5ef7backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dea…d77abacked Yes | 23c | 49.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 100-124 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125-149 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300 or more times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.