Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eedf7e4b3d51fce01fa06edd2d5f2f1afed77c338c39e11b0506991da8edc49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 23c | 6,437$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.52 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 16c | 2,847$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.5 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…7ee8backed Yes | 15c | 1,107$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +236.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 23c | 1,103$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.17 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 23c | 893.21$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.28 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 25c | 856.23$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed Yes | 26c | 770.39$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 16c | 695.97$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.33 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 694.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…e2bdbacked No | 69c | 636.91$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…c007backed Yes | 31c | 600.38$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…f0c3backed Yes | 32c | 475$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 444.52$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab99…7ac1backed Yes | 19c | 402.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 26c | 397.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed No | 77c | 324.07$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…0cd4backed Yes | 21c | 312$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 22c | 295$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 282.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 25c | 276$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 27c | 275$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…92a8backed No | 80c | 272$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 9c | 230$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 18c | 230$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…1116backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 24c | 210.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…c8d0backed Yes | 20c | 210$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed No | 80c | 199.5$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a5…a5bfbacked Yes | 19c | 198.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 27c | 186$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…57bbbacked Yes | 28c | 178.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebc…8b41backed Yes | 26c | 171.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…5d25backed Yes | 25c | 161.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d0…ea2cbacked No | 75c | 159.69$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec78…1856backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…bdbabacked Yes | 29c | 149.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…fa3dbacked Yes | 36c | 130.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 23c | 128.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 26c | 104.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…f2c6backed Yes | 27c | 103.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +306.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed Yes | 37c | 98.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…30d0backed Yes | 32c | 97.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ad…845ebacked Yes | 21c | 91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dea…d77abacked Yes | 25c | 89.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 23c | 81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Yes | 27c | 80.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…328bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc91f…b5fabacked Yes | 21c | 70.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…892bbacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc5…5e68backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 78c | 54.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 21c | 50.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…719ebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…1771backed Yes | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa316…780cbacked Yes | 30c | 44.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…c3bebacked Yes | 35c | 43.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 71c | 21.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 100-124 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125-149 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300 or more times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.