Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39971ae9650481dfbb6535d01fe7309388b16efd59b2e67ccb980065e88d3a38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,558,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,558,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x006d…c0e5backed Yes | 0c | 89,047$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…11fabacked Yes | 0c | 89,047$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e9…6985backed Yes | 0c | 89,047$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ee…a653backed Yes | 0c | 89,047$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8481…2012backed Yes | 0c | 84,386$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…5b5fbacked Yes | 0c | 84,386$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7907…59dcbacked Yes | 0c | 84,386$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1174…8c36backed Yes | 0c | 84,386$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacde…277bbacked Yes | 0c | 84,386$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…10fbbacked Yes | 0c | 84,386$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…9841backed Yes | 0c | 84,386$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d09…d9cabacked Yes | 0c | 84,386$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…a859backed Yes | 0c | 84,386$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…cb20backed Yes | 0c | 84,386$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…cab7backed Yes | 0c | 84,386$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d48…a5a0backed Yes | 0c | 84,386$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…89a6backed Yes | 0c | 83,886$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f759backed Yes | 0c | 83,386$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…c5b2backed Yes | 0c | 82,886$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ac…62eebacked Yes | 0c | 82,886$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea66…90cfbacked Yes | 0c | 82,886$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…33f4backed Yes | 0c | 82,886$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…291abacked Yes | 0c | 67,932$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a5…91adbacked Yes | 0c | 67,932$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…ade1backed Yes | 0c | 67,932$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…7e05backed Yes | 0c | 67,932$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…7b44backed Yes | 0c | 61,932$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…4f3abacked Yes | 0c | 60,595$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…2214backed Yes | 0c | 59,198$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917a…3736backed Yes | 0c | 59,031$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b0…8e4ebacked Yes | 0c | 59,031$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f89…d58dbacked Yes | 0c | 59,031$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf818…06aabacked Yes | 0c | 59,031$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2043…2efcbacked Yes | 0c | 59,031$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1794…ce8fbacked Yes | 0c | 58,932$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…ec1fbacked Yes | 0c | 57,644$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…bc3fbacked Yes | 0c | 56,258$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x352e…dbefbacked Yes | 0c | 55,258$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…f778backed Yes | 0c | 55,258$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3640…b9b7backed Yes | 0c | 55,258$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…bf35backed Yes | 0c | 55,258$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe949…e7dbbacked Yes | 0c | 50,449$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…aff8backed Yes | 0c | 50,449$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bc…105fbacked Yes | 0c | 49,449$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad49…f0e7backed Yes | 0c | 49,449$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2922backed Yes | 0c | 49,449$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8872…c562backed Yes | 0c | 49,449$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…69c3backed Yes | 0c | 49,449$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…6616backed Yes | 0c | 49,449$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…05afbacked Yes | 0c | 48,449$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfe…30f3backed Yes | 0c | 39,915$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c3…4537backed Yes | 0c | 31,932$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,165$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,283$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.73 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Yes | 1c | 846.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 6c | 718.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 12c | 698.05$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…c007backed Yes | 31c | 607.29$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab99…7ac1backed Yes | 16c | 569.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 25c | 548.96$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…14ecbacked Yes | 19c | 521.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 75c | 454.18$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 392.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 14c | 366.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…61cabacked Yes | 32c | 314.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 22c | 307.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 21c | 296.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 19c | 273.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed Yes | 35c | 231.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 21c | 210$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 23c | 205$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…57bbbacked Yes | 25c | 201.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…f0c3backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc9…c69cbacked Yes | 19c | 178.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 20c | 165$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…bdbabacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 76c | 145.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dea…d77abacked Yes | 16c | 116.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…9695backed Yes | 27c | 115$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 17c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc5…5e68backed Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 17c | 104.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +306.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 94.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec78…1856backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…7afebacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 100-124 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125-149 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300 or more times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.