TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,558,989
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,558,989 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x006d…c0e5backed Yes0c89,047$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b6…11fabacked Yes0c89,047$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7e9…6985backed Yes0c89,047$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98ee…a653backed Yes0c89,047$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8481…2012backed Yes0c84,386$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4846…5b5fbacked Yes0c84,386$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7907…59dcbacked Yes0c84,386$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1174…8c36backed Yes0c84,386$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacde…277bbacked Yes0c84,386$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf143…10fbbacked Yes0c84,386$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedab…9841backed Yes0c84,386$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d09…d9cabacked Yes0c84,386$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1049…a859backed Yes0c84,386$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf206…cb20backed Yes0c84,386$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9c1…cab7backed Yes0c84,386$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d48…a5a0backed Yes0c84,386$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4835…89a6backed Yes0c83,886$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ce3…f759backed Yes0c83,386$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…c5b2backed Yes0c82,886$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6ac…62eebacked Yes0c82,886$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea66…90cfbacked Yes0c82,886$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a90…33f4backed Yes0c82,886$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b52…291abacked Yes0c67,932$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62a5…91adbacked Yes0c67,932$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3211…ade1backed Yes0c67,932$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfae…7e05backed Yes0c67,932$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a97…7b44backed Yes0c61,932$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1ea…4f3abacked Yes0c60,595$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a0d…2214backed Yes0c59,198$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x917a…3736backed Yes0c59,031$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b0…8e4ebacked Yes0c59,031$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f89…d58dbacked Yes0c59,031$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf818…06aabacked Yes0c59,031$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2043…2efcbacked Yes0c59,031$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1794…ce8fbacked Yes0c58,932$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd046…ec1fbacked Yes0c57,644$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186b…bc3fbacked Yes0c56,258$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x352e…dbefbacked Yes0c55,258$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5553…f778backed Yes0c55,258$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3640…b9b7backed Yes0c55,258$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8d…bf35backed Yes0c55,258$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe949…e7dbbacked Yes0c50,449$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x027e…aff8backed Yes0c50,449$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bc…105fbacked Yes0c49,449$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad49…f0e7backed Yes0c49,449$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebe…2922backed Yes0c49,449$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8872…c562backed Yes0c49,449$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…69c3backed Yes0c49,449$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd966…6616backed Yes0c49,449$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba0…05afbacked Yes0c48,449$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bfe…30f3backed Yes0c39,915$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c3…4537backed Yes0c31,932$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes2c2,165$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.12222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes27c1,283$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.7317730.5%54 W · 123 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501627.4%12 W · 150 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed Yes1c846.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.04100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes6c718.56$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.59315.1%14 W · 79 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70de…db94backed Yes12c698.05$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7710527.6%29 W · 76 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc5f…c007backed Yes31c607.29$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+86.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab99…7ac1backed Yes16c569.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.69147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-86%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes25c548.96$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.752412.5%3 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-37.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e00…14ecbacked Yes19c521.64$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No75c454.18$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.727545.3%34 W · 41 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+54.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c392.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1699619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes14c366.95$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.825623.2%13 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b17…61cabacked Yes32c314.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes22c307.2$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6765623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes21c296.96$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3684616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1cc…e644backed Yes19c273.11$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.42520%5 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa920…be41backed Yes35c231.34$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.37425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+88.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2544…156bbacked Yes21c210$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.43318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes23c205$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.31618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf440…57bbbacked Yes25c201.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5007…f0c3backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc9…c69cbacked Yes19c178.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Yes20c165$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.453438.2%13 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5529.6%5 W · 47 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-56%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x464c…bdbabacked Yes26c150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No76c145.28$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.986624.2%16 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dea…d77abacked Yes16c116.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c69…9695backed Yes27c115$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.05650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes17c105$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8526224%63 W · 199 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabc5…5e68backed Yes21c105$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6550%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes17c104.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0917012.9%22 W · 148 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12e1…51f6backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157512%9 W · 66 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick21cpaid+306.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes14c94.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5679735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec78…1856backed Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-60.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.53312.1%4 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1eb…7afebacked Yes33c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8550%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.