Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c3b8048eddc76c7cd7f323e02832957982db254806396b1a53fce02c2959d70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 18c | 1,973$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.52 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 12c | 1,330$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.97 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +306.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed Yes | 11c | 1,325$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,225$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 18c | 1,070$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.38 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…15efbacked No | 8c | 999.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +297.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 77c | 955.11$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ce…a5bcbacked Yes | 14c | 789.24$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +382.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 54c | 737.06$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.41 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 9c | 616.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 13c | 496.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked No | 77c | 478.07$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 9c | 460.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes | 14c | 426$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed No | 30c | 402.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d0…ea2cbacked Yes | 40c | 394.14$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 10c | 385.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 366.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.73 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 12c | 365.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…9695backed Yes | 29c | 341.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 9c | 321.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Yes | 42c | 305.62$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.15 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 35c | 292.64$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…dcdfbacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked No | 75c | 240$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 6c | 232$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 8c | 219.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…a8f1backed Yes | 13c | 215.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed Yes | 11c | 212.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…c8d0backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe51b…d02bbacked Yes | 26c | 195.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Yes | 22c | 182.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…c007backed Yes | 11c | 175.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…c863backed Yes | 18c | 166.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…1993backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ad…845ebacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…629ebacked Yes | 11c | 106.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +421.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…c475backed Yes | 19c | 103.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa316…780cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 80c | 98.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked No | 19c | 95.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…82a8backed Yes | 25c | 95.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…e9ebbacked Yes | 34c | 95.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1846…4727backed Yes | 59c | 91.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…19d5backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +255.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 65c | 78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 79c | 72.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…b0e5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…fc10backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…aea4backed Yes | 64c | 31.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646d…d31fbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 52c | 26.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 75c | 24.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f48…7bb6backed Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +694.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 100-124 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125-149 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300 or more times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.