Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 300 or more times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x137489225f5669d19c60a6dc413d8062ae0ef3cb9e04305df9b1ccc038909c6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 10c | 5,108$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,614.87 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…9f7ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,650$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +432.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…c863backed Yes | 15c | 1,413$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.77 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 55c | 1,364$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.12 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ce…a5bcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,283$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +382.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 17c | 1,189$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.95 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +306.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 11c | 1,165$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.16 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 4c | 1,113$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.87 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,089$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.91 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…a1dabacked Yes | 9c | 1,056$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +270.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…7eb7backed Yes | 24c | 822.28$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +308.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…c5aebacked Yes | 27c | 764.31$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.77 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 21c | 748$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +251.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 7c | 717.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.9 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…282ebacked Yes | 14c | 702.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +602.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 14c | 684.43$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.94 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 5c | 673.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.5 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…0cd4backed Yes | 3c | 540.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.97 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…1ab1backed Yes | 21c | 531.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb118…da1ebacked Yes | 6c | 529.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +253.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…629ebacked Yes | 4c | 521.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +421.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…c007backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 33c | 465.94$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.98 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa766…d04abacked Yes | 4c | 449.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.19 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 3c | 424.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.99 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes | 5c | 399.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.93 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes | 8c | 395.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.91 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 12c | 392.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.17 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed Yes | 8c | 304.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +174.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 68c | 298.91$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.14 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked No | 20c | 298$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 6c | 269.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.09 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7b…5664backed Yes | 4c | 263.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +1,317.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1846…4727backed Yes | 24c | 262.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 7c | 241$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.72 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f48…7bb6backed Yes | 6c | 222.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +694.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ad…845ebacked Yes | 16c | 210$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.56 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…7ee8backed Yes | 15c | 205.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +236.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.29 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…dcdfbacked Yes | 39c | 179.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 30c | 157$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed Yes | 9c | 142.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +305.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21dc…3c76backed Yes | 11c | 132.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed Yes | 13c | 122.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…ff17backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…b2ccbacked Yes | 15c | 119.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked No | 77c | 82.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 60c | 45.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…0225backed Yes | 65c | 18.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 300 or more times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 100-124 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125-149 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.