Premier League · resolved market
Will Austria win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x258f20bcedf0164713463107b5ed3d056f666abc7171be14428162b2956e1c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 50c | 7,601$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,801.66 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed No | 51c | 6,206$3,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,164.23 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0e…3f36backed Yes | 51c | 2,333$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 50c | 1,475$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed No | 50c | 980$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…998dbacked Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17c1…a606backed Yes | 50c | 394.72$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…ba5abacked Yes | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 49c | 226$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.56 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 50c | 222.21$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 48c | 217.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.32 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1666…ba7bbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 53c | 122.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…fbd6backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…afc1backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…113bbacked Yes | 50c | 89.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…fecbbacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…96a2backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…fc55backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 52c | 39.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee55…63dbbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 48c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…0d22backed No | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…b1d1backed Yes | 46c | 27.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…28debacked Yes | 50c | 23.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c59…ae3fbacked Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austria win?this page
- Will Poland win?No won
- Will the match be a draw? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.