Premier League · resolved market
Will Poland win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb772a5161bdb95301462493aa07c943e1ce71caa2861ad3389f6a975c28b50e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 74c | 748.57$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4b…3f53backed Yes | 29c | 692.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e81…94bbbacked No | 76c | 554.05$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.13 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 15c | 260$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 25c | 226$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 24c | 222.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 27c | 162.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked No | 72c | 160.98$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b4…09a3backed Yes | 24c | 112.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…0a18backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed No | 78c | 110.2$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…35eebacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedfe…8707backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 24c | 86.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…96a2backed Yes | 29c | 84.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…c8ddbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…ea10backed Yes | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…0789backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…d6a5backed Yes | 24c | 41.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…1487backed No | 75c | 40.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Poland win?this page
- Will Austria win?Yes won
- Will the match be a draw? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.