Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 10 or more times this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f922b176333d76d49b337ff600981167659f7e146d3fad9d90770279b347aa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 5c | 5,850$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.01 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed No | 9c | 4,387$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.84 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1204…4ba6backed No | 26c | 3,270$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed No | 11c | 3,249$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 2c | 2,354$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 43c | 2,228$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.15 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +187%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…2a72backed No | 71c | 1,316$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +251.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 19c | 1,025$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed No | 70c | 978.88$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 38c | 978.87$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.23 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1f…4282backed No | 66c | 880$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 25c | 769.19$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.42 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 9c | 600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…10fdbacked No | 6c | 567.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 20c | 560.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.72 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 57c | 531.98$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.01 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…4ab8backed No | 77c | 516.19$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…ad23backed No | 20c | 493.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 69c | 477.46$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 64c | 444.34$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.8 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 66c | 400$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 5c | 346.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 18c | 344.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +76%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed No | 69c | 320.29$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed No | 15c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 62c | 260$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked No | 67c | 254$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.18 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef4c…827cbacked No | 10c | 242.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f3…a965backed Yes | 25c | 228$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf079…2ba6backed No | 51c | 222$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 24c | 208.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.62 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…9262backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…d871backed Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked No | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes | 75c | 108$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…cfc2backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d81…5a37backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 69c | 91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8f…957ebacked Yes | 25c | 79.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…fdf4backed Yes | 70c | 78.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd76…6c23backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db5…8946backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…471cbacked Yes | 32c | 48.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…2ed4backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…15c9backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…0cb3backed No | 65c | 17.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a2…eb10backed No | 78c | 15.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c1…753bbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 10 or more times this week?this page
- Will Trump tweet 0 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 1 time this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 2 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 3 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 4 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 6 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 7 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 8 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 9 times this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.