Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 0 times this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x159668ae44fcdf310b6481440af11c8b533462ccb5b576a14eb74a7db7481ab7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 27c | 4,753$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 74c | 4,348$3,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.62 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +187%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1f…4282backed Yes | 20c | 3,845$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed No | 73c | 2,673$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 76c | 2,597$1,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 25c | 2,000$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.09 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…471cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,450$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…9ebdbacked Yes | 32c | 1,425$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 26c | 1,421$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e749backed Yes | 7c | 1,400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked No | 73c | 1,376$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 30c | 730.15$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +76%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…195abacked Yes | 31c | 642.39$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…511bbacked No | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 72c | 530$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked No | 73c | 445$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…36f0backed No | 78c | 439$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed Yes | 27c | 380$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8016…9894backed No | 69c | 378$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked No | 73c | 352$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 350.56$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a79…f197backed Yes | 35c | 287.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…090ebacked No | 72c | 275.15$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 69c | 255$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf079…2ba6backed No | 72c | 245.65$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…9ca6backed No | 79c | 229.23$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…b412backed Yes | 30c | 224.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked Yes | 31c | 217.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…89babacked Yes | 30c | 167.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…d871backed Yes | 21c | 149.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 71c | 141$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…085bbacked Yes | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…475fbacked No | 73c | 137.83$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed No | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 78c | 117.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa145…06d2backed No | 74c | 108.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a99…7937backed No | 73c | 101.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…e0e8backed Yes | 27c | 101$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f1…5edbbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…5a5ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…8100backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd68…5d4dbacked Yes | 27c | 92.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…db50backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…c9d8backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…25d2backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 0 times this week?this page
- Will Trump tweet 1 time this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 10 or more times this week?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 2 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 3 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 4 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 6 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 7 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 8 times this week?No won
- Will Trump tweet 9 times this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.