Olympics · resolved market
Will Great Britain win the 3rd most gold medals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5ef1c61eb66dc5c05181d9cf9d75b412607aeef2a62c241699bc40fc4444ea2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 2c | 20,947$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.4 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d81…5a37backed Yes | 1c | 9,981$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 0c | 3,314$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,123$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,075$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 2c | 3,008$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 7c | 2,916$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +1,708.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,787$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +335.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 2,454$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…2dc9backed No | 77c | 633.76$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…5801backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…bdcdbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…10fdbacked No | 53c | 188.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…4a6abacked No | 54c | 166.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105b…08f0backed No | 67c | 162.34$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b26…f032backed Yes | 29c | 155.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 32c | 80.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…36d4backed No | 75c | 79.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…f4aabacked No | 74c | 63.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd97…0e44backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 51c | 53.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6863…f17bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…463cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…e38bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a5…1617backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Great Britain win the 3rd most gold medals?this page
- Will Australia win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will China win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will France win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will Germany win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will Japan win the 3rd most gold medals?Yes won
- Will Netherlands win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will another country win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will the United States win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.