Olympics · resolved market
Will Australia win the 3rd most gold medals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4218169ce79c643ef4b131b828bc8b9f882939b7966b3f36fa1865dcabff876f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd727…eccebacked No | 66c | 10,825$7,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,690.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ce61backed Yes | 75c | 8,363$6,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,280.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked Yes | 76c | 4,880$3,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,692.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…a694backed Yes | 14c | 4,456$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 3,574$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 70c | 3,000$2,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed Yes | 43c | 2,583$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105b…08f0backed No | 14c | 1,725$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e18…1201backed Yes | 43c | 1,600$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 9c | 1,551$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.91 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 39c | 1,438$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3346…0032backed Yes | 51c | 1,388$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…32b8backed Yes | 12c | 1,363$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…7ebcbacked Yes | 36c | 1,361$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 36c | 1,283$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +1,708.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…8780backed No | 57c | 1,099$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d81…5a37backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…20c8backed No | 22c | 779$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 17c | 605.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +278.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked No | 5c | 604.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +335.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 76c | 600$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 59c | 600$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…f12ebacked Yes | 50c | 598.4$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8109…aedabacked No | 9c | 562.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +394.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…bad6backed Yes | 21c | 533.92$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 9c | 529$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 79c | 511.87$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 6c | 463.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed No | 57c | 423.27$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.04 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 7c | 409.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 13c | 363.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…af29backed No | 59c | 357.34$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc8…7ebfbacked No | 5c | 346.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,786.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…6825backed Yes | 53c | 334.08$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…4a6abacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…e2d4backed Yes | 77c | 286.09$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…4700backed No | 19c | 259.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 56c | 248.56$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.32 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…9f23backed Yes | 35c | 211.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 9c | 203.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…c433backed Yes | 60c | 184.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7932…c07abacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 25c | 163.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 50c | 150.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 12c | 139.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed Yes | 29c | 139$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked No | 27c | 132$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.27 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…7f87backed No | 16c | 122.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…1921backed Yes | 54c | 109.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…16f2backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…e30ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…a093backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a4…199fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 76c | 99.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb99…99ccbacked Yes | 43c | 93.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 74c | 76.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe515…9458backed No | 50c | 68.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…89ddbacked Yes | 49c | 60.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…408cbacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e81…b6b2backed Yes | 55c | 54.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…1605backed Yes | 58c | 53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 77c | 43.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…5bc0backed Yes | 54c | 37.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…d744backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877b…eb70backed Yes | 73c | 16.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Australia win the 3rd most gold medals?this page
- Will China win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will France win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will Germany win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will Great Britain win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will Japan win the 3rd most gold medals?Yes won
- Will Netherlands win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will another country win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will the United States win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.