Olympics · resolved market
Will Japan win the 3rd most gold medals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5402187231ac1a0721c02141bee0a0015fce33d515eadb33e07843be0c103a58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 1c | 11,057$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,979.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +1,708.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…90b3backed No | 50c | 10,075$5,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,007.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e33…396abacked Yes | 50c | 9,962$5,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,951.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked No | 3c | 5,173$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.38 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 4c | 4,275$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,105.56 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 12c | 3,628$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,202.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 60c | 2,623$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ce61backed Yes | 47c | 2,369$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 2c | 1,968$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.45 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 55c | 1,858$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 2c | 1,153$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.95 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbe…5f66backed Yes | 61c | 1,088$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.69 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 1,056$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.07 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed No | 38c | 1,037$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…7ebcbacked Yes | 47c | 819$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…b93fbacked Yes | 22c | 752.89$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad1c…78cfbacked Yes | 54c | 741.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…ff37backed Yes | 61c | 708.83$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed Yes | 4c | 670.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 7c | 628.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105b…08f0backed No | 70c | 536.74$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…cfc7backed Yes | 22c | 532.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 22c | 510.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed Yes | 30c | 494.12$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.57 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 8c | 428.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e09…d784backed Yes | 58c | 340.86$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…9f23backed Yes | 7c | 328.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3391…ed51backed Yes | 53c | 283.34$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…f234backed Yes | 25c | 242$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206e…425bbacked Yes | 58c | 220.65$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 12c | 206$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.8 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb99…99ccbacked No | 43c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 14c | 198$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +335.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 55c | 182.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 40c | 124$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd430…d683backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…391ebacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…9effbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…5a04backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8109…aedabacked Yes | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +394.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…4bc5backed Yes | 61c | 89.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…99e5backed No | 18c | 77.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…7e03backed No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 65c | 58.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e8…4ed9backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…03cbbacked Yes | 55c | 54.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8075…af14backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…687abacked No | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd97…0e44backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 41cpaid | +233.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed No | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…8151backed No | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3c…3203backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…f1a9backed Yes | 75c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4c…65febacked Yes | 65c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 66c | 15.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan win the 3rd most gold medals?this page
- Will Australia win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will China win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will France win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will Germany win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will Great Britain win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will Netherlands win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will another country win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will the United States win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.