Olympics · resolved market
Will France win the 3rd most gold medals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b61875fc84180b2cb4e72299443d3529afbcdba245c3211b6c5f8402991f7b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 18c | 16,216$2,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,843.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105b…08f0backed Yes | 28c | 9,434$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,640.31 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked No | 77c | 8,600$6,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 27c | 4,565$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 42c | 3,568$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +1,708.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed Yes | 0c | 3,300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 3,143$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…36d4backed Yes | 58c | 2,380$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…c427backed No | 62c | 2,054$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…24d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,681$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…2958backed No | 63c | 1,500$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 71c | 1,256$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…3873backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…0f62backed Yes | 45c | 835.7$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 59c | 745.71$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 52c | 742.24$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.54 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd149…5452backed No | 65c | 739$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…62aabacked No | 35c | 728.38$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 720.45$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…a975backed Yes | 14c | 654.28$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 10c | 524$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…61cabacked Yes | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 41c | 511.36$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.43 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…2dc9backed Yes | 55c | 499.7$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 29c | 496.94$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +335.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed No | 59c | 492.8$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 70c | 472.78$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 69c | 360.79$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed Yes | 4c | 324.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 65c | 300$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…4a6abacked No | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 42c | 264.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f6…b13dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 41cpaid | +233.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…cfc7backed Yes | 67c | 199$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 40c | 190.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 29c | 189.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.65 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 40c | 188.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1376…8bdebacked No | 44c | 182.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 36c | 179.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 68c | 174.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Yes | 59c | 173.26$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2aa…2ed0backed No | 43c | 157.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…9cd5backed Yes | 50c | 156$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 59c | 129.39$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf522…84febacked No | 47c | 113.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b26…f032backed Yes | 65c | 103.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 17c | 96.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…1921backed No | 52c | 95.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90de…0a6dbacked Yes | 62c | 92.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 63c | 87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Yes | 62c | 81.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf087…40f5backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…c6d3backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbe…5f66backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d81…5a37backed No | 38c | 42.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…9b44backed Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…3743backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…cd16backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968e…3303backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…2632backed Yes | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0761…fc80backed No | 44c | 29.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Yes | 46c | 27.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0c…b3e9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…070dbacked Yes | 72c | 22.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7f…5b35backed Yes | 62c | 21.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…dd2dbacked Yes | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France win the 3rd most gold medals?this page
- Will Australia win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will China win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will Germany win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will Great Britain win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will Japan win the 3rd most gold medals?Yes won
- Will Netherlands win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will another country win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
- Will the United States win the 3rd most gold medals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.