TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran military response by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$273,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$264,772

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,697 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes11c46,831$5,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,214.194214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes8c30,282$2,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,569.889815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No73c17,454$12,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,75521531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes11c16,037$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.2826423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Yes28c15,067$4,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,149.682133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes10c9,085$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.97329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-77.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes5c6,862$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.041723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1189…a9e0backed Yes27c6,320$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.09185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-92.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6d6…d67abacked Yes32c5,892$1,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,861.53742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes2c5,090$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.62450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a66…0bf8backed Yes13c5,004$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No78c4,119$3,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.511457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Yes5c3,919$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.253540%14 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Yes32c2,616$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8342339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01e8…221bbacked Yes20c2,477$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x719d…4e73backed No77c2,476$1,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.44520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb011…2d13backed Yes31c2,469$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.732138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No69c2,260$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.696137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a23…4a70backed Yes36c2,200$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed No74c2,101$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.362259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3585…cdd3backed No77c1,888$1,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.473100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+86.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc615…221dbacked Yes18c1,812$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.131729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f01…645ebacked Yes12c1,623$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4740%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9314…1e98backed No61c1,502$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.361163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe0…f2a8backed No73c1,478$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.51323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…3b03backed Yes36c1,405$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1002…af07backed Yes38c1,310$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd9c…3873backed Yes30c1,200$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80bf…e42ebacked Yes24c1,074$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.21421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-58.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes24c1,018$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.51931.6%6 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed No74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc922…bf70backed Yes25c1,000$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.31428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6445…4ec0backed Yes19c972.98$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.991735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c6…b942backed Yes25c965.22$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.911127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes4c950.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.133743.2%16 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdfa…d143backed Yes5c851.07$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.552015%3 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3921…0cf4backed Yes19c838$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.82837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2855…afffbacked Yes15c815.94$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.531225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No78c800.01$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18028750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed Yes19c800$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes27c760.54$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.773850%19 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed No67c760.09$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.988951.7%46 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No67c749.99$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.513850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21da…baf5backed Yes5c729.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x323b…6ed9backed No77c726.29$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d9…c24fbacked No75c707.05$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.272653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes10c700.01$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.273141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes17c684.97$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.492825%7 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13d2…7019backed No78c675$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.59683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No64c649.99$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa3…c526backed Yes35c566.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0c…c823backed No72c545.63$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c43…b289backed No65c545.11$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.89666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x948e…92b5backed No74c529.34$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.631330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8d9…bb87backed No74c515$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba45…e523backed Yes5c506.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…7a52backed Yes34c503.48$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bba…9b86backed Yes4c499.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-65%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x456b…eb7ebacked No48c494.23$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2571747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed Yes3c489$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.593743.2%16 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+123.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Yes24c482.13$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.413435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No73c454.99$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.854742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aee…1bd0backed Yes6c446.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47a5…aa28backed Yes22c440.11$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.442524%6 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d45…d03dbacked Yes5c433.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5450%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6482…5fedbacked Yes12c416$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes33c402.39$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.791931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x495c…512bbacked Yes5c392.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.251323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x355c…e6d4backed No79c388.8$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.88741.4%36 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes21c385.14$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.147728.6%22 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0496…d6d7backed Yes37c380.87$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140130%0 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x88b8…478cbacked Yes39c365$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0280%0 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No79c352.35$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.679831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2178…7b38backed No67c350$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+37.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2050…feefbacked Yes6c344.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ef9…83d6backed Yes6c340$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.450%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes13c332.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.292810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba68…ce61backed No64c324.57$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.84666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3634…310dbacked Yes17c308.82$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5448…e2e2backed No66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.03450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No66c302$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.642454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e0c…809fbacked Yes31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a37…e6d1backed Yes34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90de…0a6dbacked Yes24c287.06$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7567…6c48backed No70c285$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.51973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc324…ace5backed Yes37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb99…7415backed No68c268.16$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.75955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe854…269fbacked Yes21c255$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+80.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes27c249.9$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6290%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7880…009bbacked No74c241.1$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.172100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd68…746abacked No67c232.71$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.795158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b5f…7a25backed No76c228.97$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.593100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d04…bfd6backed Yes19c210.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+53.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No71c210.44$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.455143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca9d…07f7backed Yes34c205.88$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No63c205.08$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4416246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x285e…229bbacked Yes26c203.19$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…ac3fbacked No67c200.43$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.431361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+75.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66254%1 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.24per pick28cpaid-83.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.