Olympics · resolved market
Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) win Gold in 5000m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x720f35f42b8add06234567ceefa2bf089d4010cd6d9112a4144775654dd55993
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 31c | 7,776$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.65 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Yes | 69c | 5,000$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 69c | 4,792$3,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.37 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…1708backed No | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed No | 3c | 3,117$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…2f80backed No | 31c | 2,810$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 29c | 1,108$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.29 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf8…fb62backed No | 30c | 1,078$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed Yes | 68c | 1,074$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc04b…1424backed No | 33c | 999.97$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 31c | 946.31$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.74 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4268…43e5backed No | 33c | 883.33$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb33b…092fbacked Yes | 71c | 800$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…f234backed No | 36c | 800$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed No | 33c | 719.54$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.52 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 67c | 620$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f8…b504backed Yes | 63c | 535.76$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked No | 38c | 500$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 62c | 454.83$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.84 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602c…f71abacked Yes | 68c | 430.56$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0786backed Yes | 72c | 348.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…53a1backed Yes | 73c | 332.63$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 69c | 326.5$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…4279backed No | 45c | 308.62$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked No | 30c | 260$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 71c | 240$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ca…f9e6backed No | 35c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe28a…8072backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb99…99ccbacked No | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…1771backed No | 33c | 178$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed No | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…07f7backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -68%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…8c13backed No | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa23…a716backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…16f2backed Yes | 72c | 138.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…72c5backed No | 27c | 133.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 67c | 112.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Yes | 68c | 102$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 36c | 101.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3a…1ab8backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…399fbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 66c | 90.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…2c3cbacked No | 29c | 90.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…da98backed Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…3e67backed Yes | 66c | 86.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked No | 38c | 84.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f07…96e3backed Yes | 66c | 83.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked Yes | 71c | 70.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968e…3303backed No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcba1…2c83backed Yes | 68c | 52.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…a741backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…ba91backed No | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdd…c6c3backed Yes | 74c | 48.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…bad6backed Yes | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed No | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 66c | 46.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…50b9backed Yes | 70c | 44.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…a2f3backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…c000backed No | 34c | 42.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed No | 38c | 42.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…9498backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1106…6fc1backed Yes | 72c | 38.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…7a5abacked No | 35c | 38.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…3934backed Yes | 68c | 35.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 64c | 33.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…56c2backed Yes | 74c | 33.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db7…d20ebacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +213%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…463cbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…1605backed Yes | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…7fe1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…e38bbacked Yes | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) win Gold in 5000m?this page
- Will Grant Fisher (USA) win Gold in 5000m?No won
- Will Hagos Gebrhiwet (ETH) win Gold in 5000m?No won
- Will Jacob Kiplimo (UGA) win Gold in 5000m?No won
- Will Jacob Krop (KEN) win Gold in 5000m?No won
- Will Joshua Cheptegei (UGA) win Gold in 5000m?No won
- Will another athlete win Gold in 5000m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.