NFL · resolved market
Browns vs. Commanders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaef908665e72fae2032305f89a3e243a5dbccf61a83e759452a77a85d84e078
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Browns, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Browns | 6c | 3,672$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.21 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Browns | 40c | 2,560$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.19 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Browns | 11c | 2,298$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.43 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Commanders | 61c | 2,062$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.66 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Browns | 40c | 1,135$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.01 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Browns | 40c | 1,032$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.81 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Browns | 35c | 1,023$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Browns | 32c | 902.1$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.01 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Commanders | 60c | 900$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Commanders | 59c | 823.98$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.87 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Commanders | 60c | 712.1$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.84 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Commanders | 62c | 684.91$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.15 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Browns | 39c | 512$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Commanders | 61c | 400$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…e748backed Commanders | 77c | 266.23$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Commanders | 63c | 253.21$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Commanders | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…67fdbacked Browns | 38c | 234.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…07c3backed Commanders | 60c | 226.67$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Browns | 41c | 221.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb15…bbe5backed Commanders | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce6…4b21backed Browns | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Browns | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Browns | 16c | 196.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Commanders | 60c | 183.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Commanders | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Commanders | 60c | 167.67$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e9…2758backed Commanders | 61c | 163.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | +11.4wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…8c07backed Browns | 37c | 154.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Commanders | 61c | 142.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Commanders | 67c | 136.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 144 | 57.6%83 W · 61 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Browns | 40c | 135.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…304cbacked Commanders | 75c | 133.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Browns | 39c | 124.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6db3…fd7ebacked Commanders | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Commanders | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Browns | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Browns | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c46…5748backed Commanders | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Commanders | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3816…634dbacked Browns | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Commanders | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Commanders | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Commanders | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96fa…baadbacked Browns | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Browns | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…24e6backed Commanders | 60c | 86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…4551backed Commanders | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Commanders | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Commanders | 62c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 205 | 57.6%118 W · 87 L | +16.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x208e…dfd0backed Commanders | 75c | 75.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93b0…69c8backed Commanders | 61c | 75.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Browns | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…efb8backed Commanders | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedd5…63a1backed Commanders | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 158 | 58.9%93 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc964…8411backed Commanders | 62c | 63.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a58…bf33backed Commanders | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…70a5backed Commanders | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Browns | 42c | 48.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcc…7153backed Browns | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Commanders | 58c | 44.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…15dbbacked Commanders | 61c | 36.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…e2d3backed Commanders | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Browns | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…c88cbacked Commanders | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Commanders | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…a0c3backed Commanders | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Browns | 39c | 25.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Commanders | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65d…3757backed Commanders | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.