TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran military response by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,117,109
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,192,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,117,109 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 480 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f2d…d0cfbacked Yes17c246,147$41,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,042.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes46c54,187$25,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,178.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes2c48,055$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.53329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-77.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes19c38,768$7,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,351.6626423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb438…b113backed Yes12c32,431$3,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,935.35742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe470…b6e2backed Yes21c25,409$5,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,226.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No60c25,324$15,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,222.342941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e8…ce3bbacked No65c24,563$16,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,505.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No55c17,373$9,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,789.621531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed No69c17,286$11,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,337.313243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes15c16,978$2,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,476.375836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ac0…041fbacked Yes11c15,684$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.83728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No71c14,686$10,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,229.0110150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a28…3ca9backed No77c13,541$10,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,070.962050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f8…b504backed No75c12,724$9,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,175.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes2c12,355$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.789815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefcc…1444backed No59c12,195$7,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,998.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes22c12,160$2,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,711.396726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x251d…2bf4backed No72c10,528$7,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,958.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes30c9,248$2,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,781.414724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes49c9,210$4,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,473.371752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…fd31backed No80c8,364$6,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No77c7,755$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.932263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed No71c7,386$5,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115.81127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2774…fce4backed Yes21c7,221$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…4979backed No72c6,764$4,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2970…e1c9backed Yes40c6,000$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,370825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No70c5,930$4,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,765.8340433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e82…64abbacked Yes21c5,866$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4667…a2d2backed No48c5,800$2,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,027.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacda…1d8bbacked Yes26c5,500$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes8c5,100$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.79964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a1f…9cdebacked Yes41c5,089$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.180%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes35c5,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7501931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2855…afffbacked Yes32c4,866$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.281225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed No74c4,779$3,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.042259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes30c4,706$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.6951138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a9…94b3backed No79c4,416$3,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.172100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e06…15d5backed Yes27c3,999$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…bf70backed Yes27c3,802$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.51428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No80c3,762$3,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.313458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes7c3,760$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.7928427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d78…3e8cbacked Yes21c3,358$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.47714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed Yes30c3,292$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.522759.3%16 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+69.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2736…3625backed Yes26c2,949$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.48714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-78.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No50c2,869$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.6316246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe0c…c823backed Yes2c2,833$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd993…844abacked Yes42c2,791$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-86.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes20c2,747$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.241723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bcf…529bbacked Yes20c2,669$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes23c2,616$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.563743.2%16 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x01c2…0a62backed No77c2,600$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a1…7c68backed Yes18c2,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca6…6b28backed No80c2,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe0…f2a8backed No68c2,500$1,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8051323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb231…99a4backed Yes29c2,498$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee6e…807cbacked No64c2,470$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.06450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3585…cdd3backed No44c2,445$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3793100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+86.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9478…63f5backed Yes50c2,442$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.211330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb47…fde1backed No61c2,300$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d6b3backed Yes48c2,286$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75bb…0ac5backed No80c2,255$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.771625%4 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes41c2,222$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce08…28bdbacked Yes38c2,218$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.172520%5 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e2b…8fa0backed No53c2,213$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.71145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9296…e89cbacked Yes21c2,207$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc30a…353bbacked Yes32c2,102$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6831330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x111a…2bb4backed Yes4c2,062$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.27130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39e…e7c7backed No77c2,033$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+192.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc16…d936backed Yes19c2,025$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.231315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+61.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8540…e24fbacked Yes42c2,005$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.36520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x25d6…0b9cbacked No78c1,935$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31d…36d5backed Yes34c1,932$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6601225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8dd…c3e4backed No72c1,915$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bba…d81fbacked No79c1,893$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.37825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b95…6141backed Yes3c1,845$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed17…5b41backed No42c1,602$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked Yes35c1,550$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.55743.9%25 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80bf…e42ebacked Yes25c1,526$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.561421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-58.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No80c1,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3003850%19 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7108…7492backed Yes34c1,484$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6482…5fedbacked Yes4c1,469$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7650%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No80c1,411$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.836137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b5…edefbacked Yes20c1,400$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No73c1,365$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.843943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Yes22c1,337$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.732339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948e…92b5backed Yes39c1,324$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.351330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No67c1,317$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.959831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac92…9d64backed Yes19c1,300$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2471643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef1…d8c0backed Yes28c1,288$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.960%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes54c1,250$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6752326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes25c1,250$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.493141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9c…3873backed No61c1,234$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c6…3654backed Yes40c1,223$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.4850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dda…6aa2backed Yes17c1,213$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4755…20fdbacked Yes25c1,198$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3325…ade5backed Yes42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b60…f259backed Yes61c1,170$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.731952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ef…2254backed No43c1,155$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.87666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40f…2f5abacked Yes38c1,115$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.