Olympics · resolved market
Will Letsile Tebogo (BOT) win Gold in 200m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4caad295e25759e6da83565cb03ad90bf270d0da02e1c0c94f1b4aae359d19c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 13c | 6,272$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,456.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…1708backed No | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,870 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f8…b504backed Yes | 9c | 2,500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 7c | 1,977$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.82 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked No | 17c | 1,882$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.94 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c8…d3e7backed Yes | 14c | 1,705$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 24c | 1,483$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa937…dbb1backed Yes | 8c | 1,263$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…d77dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,114$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 6c | 684$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…3873backed Yes | 16c | 624.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…9da9backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…67fdbacked Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 23cpaid | +355.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c5…70d9backed Yes | 19c | 392.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1206backed Yes | 16c | 313$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff6…0dcbbacked Yes | 18c | 305.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 6c | 286.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.97 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…080fbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Yes | 17c | 249.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…6e8ebacked Yes | 14c | 241.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +182.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 6c | 240$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.4 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a3…d74fbacked Yes | 7c | 227.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.86 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 18c | 224.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…9f96backed Yes | 22c | 222.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…8e19backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23b…8b75backed Yes | 15c | 185.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 19cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…37adbacked Yes | 17c | 176.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +193.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db7…d20ebacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +213%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9a…8022backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed Yes | 17c | 160$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa23…a716backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…c2f0backed Yes | 18c | 155.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd283…ef98backed Yes | 18c | 150.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +456.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf94…7169backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…8d43backed Yes | 17c | 148.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +472.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Yes | 16c | 139.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.51 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e8…2867backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 13cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 10c | 104.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…2dc9backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…f12ebacked Yes | 17c | 92.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…9498backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Letsile Tebogo (BOT) win Gold in 200m?this page
- Will Andre De Grasse (CAN) win Gold in 200m?No won
- Will Erriyon Knighton (USA) win Gold in 200m?No won
- Will Kenneth Bednarek (USA) win Gold in 200m?No won
- Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 200m?No won
- Will Zharnel Hughes (GBR) win Gold in 200m?No won
- Will another athlete win Gold in 200m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.