NFL · resolved market
Colts vs. Jaguars
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5996331b3e590b911eeb06462c0f2136c9b045f571d6993c2fbbaff6e4327924
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Colts, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Jaguars | 66c | 6,108$4,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.49 | 144 | 57.6%83 W · 61 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Jaguars | 60c | 4,637$2,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.61 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Jaguars | 57c | 3,908$2,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.12 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Jaguars | 63c | 3,151$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.83 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…e748backed Colts | 48c | 3,083$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Colts | 37c | 2,574$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.11 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed Colts | 56c | 2,361$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.9 | 54 | 72.2%39 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Colts | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Colts | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 118 | 21.2%25 W · 93 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Jaguars | 60c | 1,308$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.36 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Colts | 36c | 1,294$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.97 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Colts | 18c | 1,257$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.28 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Jaguars | 68c | 1,143$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.82 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…27d3backed Colts | 18c | 1,100$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Colts | 40c | 1,000$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccde…f241backed Colts | 40c | 885.28$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Colts | 42c | 859.27$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.24 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Jaguars | 64c | 819.93$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.81 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb4…a9bdbacked Colts | 45c | 766.67$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked Colts | 47c | 750$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.5 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Colts | 39c | 630$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a85…7da6backed Jaguars | 60c | 500$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe638…26e4backed Colts | 41c | 500$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e0…fe50backed Jaguars | 69c | 492.15$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.52 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Colts | 32c | 491.13$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.16 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Jaguars | 65c | 429.63$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…07c3backed Colts | 37c | 367.57$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Colts | 53c | 350$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.25 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…8c07backed Colts | 42c | 315.91$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.31 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Colts | 40c | 305.92$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.98 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c46…5748backed Jaguars | 60c | 300$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3816…634dbacked Colts | 41c | 300$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Jaguars | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.3 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…b2aabacked Colts | 35c | 300$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Colts | 36c | 276.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb98…969dbacked Colts | 41c | 272.58$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Colts | 38c | 266.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd234…43fcbacked Colts | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Jaguars | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 180 | 51.7%93 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…36b3backed Colts | 38c | 192.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Colts | 37c | 188.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe376…756bbacked Jaguars | 63c | 157.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Colts | 36c | 138.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…f0f2backed Colts | 17c | 131$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Colts | 41c | 123.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7882…b86abacked Colts | 23c | 121.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd5…63a1backed Colts | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 158 | 58.9%93 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Colts | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842c…2e53backed Colts | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…f1b2backed Colts | 40c | 97.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…9fbcbacked Jaguars | 60c | 97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…83dbbacked Colts | 38c | 94.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc08…2f6bbacked Colts | 44c | 94.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 124 | 35.5%44 W · 80 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Colts | 17c | 89.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…9926backed Colts | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…e5ecbacked Jaguars | 60c | 85.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2479…a85cbacked Colts | 41c | 85.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…6df6backed Jaguars | 63c | 78.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Colts | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…24e6backed Colts | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Colts | 41c | 61.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ed…0bb4backed Jaguars | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Colts | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 205 | 57.6%118 W · 87 L | +16.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…70a5backed Colts | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Colts | 41c | 49.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Jaguars | 63c | 47.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4311…1518backed Colts | 63c | 47.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc19a…b660backed Colts | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -5.8wins | -0.24per pick | 28cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x778a…1a6dbacked Colts | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…06bbbacked Colts | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa323…2518backed Colts | 39c | 41.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…efb8backed Colts | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…dd93backed Colts | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…3f8bbacked Jaguars | 64c | 31.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…a1b2backed Colts | 56c | 26.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Jaguars | 63c | 23.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…4a0bbacked Jaguars | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65d…3757backed Jaguars | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.