TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Olympic Basketball: Germany vs. France

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Franceof Germany, France
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,867
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,139

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,867 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6c54…da75backed Germany71c17,394$12,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,432.2920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ee3…10fdbacked France39c12,506$4,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,587.02560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed Germany60c11,189$6,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,675.84933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x800e…d9bdbacked France44c7,893$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,393.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a12…01cebacked France43c7,156$3,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,114.452864.3%18 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+53.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked Germany27c6,187$1,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,698.64520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+138.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e82…64abbacked France18c4,994$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,095.091855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed France45c3,300$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,825666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+67.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xacf7…a694backed France37c3,262$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,046.44616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e64…41dfbacked Germany66c3,228$2,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,117.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8054…2d44backed France39c3,088$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+155.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a14…0762backed France41c2,790$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.13450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked France37c2,003$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.461346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+117.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d4e…8be7backed France34c1,754$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.911258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f7d…197cbacked Germany58c1,709$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.692236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8297…1708backed Germany2c1,579$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.59195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd31c…b93fbacked France49c1,447$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.64475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+108.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Germany63c1,250$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.54245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Germany16c1,146$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.283522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Germany63c923.58$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.9313419.4%26 W · 108 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a3b…ffcebacked France40c837.56$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Germany60c800$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06b7…ae50backed France65c735.58$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25c0…cfc7backed Germany30c700$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30d6…8c9dbacked Germany55c692.54$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Germany63c675.45$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.735133.3%17 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Germany65c615.55$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Germany70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-54.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6727…db84backed France35c497.99$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.661050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb91f…e659backed France71c489.69$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.691353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+195.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Germany62c333.1$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.864233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+70.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ce…c3abbacked Germany67c309.01$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-63.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf39e…e7c7backed Germany65c307.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Germany66c300$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.931127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid+63.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked France35c299.99$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc941…c3d4backed Germany65c289.66$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.382653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+38.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Germany8c285$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.562040%8 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce84…304cbacked France73c274.24$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.24366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Germany16c260.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.261010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf4…7883backed France60c251.76$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d96…91f6backed Germany57c233.33$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…1095backed Germany60c221.45$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.871442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2365…4bfbbacked Germany68c220.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.71181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick71cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x971f…160abacked Germany61c205.4$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f24…513ebacked France30c200$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1411747.1%8 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.21per pick26cpaid+49.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99ca…f9e6backed France34c200$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1321533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbee…dcf4backed Germany64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1281729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b55…02f8backed Germany43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.64843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…36bebacked France40c178.38$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6359…f32fbacked France45c177.78$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78d2…b978backed France36c166.67$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.67540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf842…682dbacked Germany8c165.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.95650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+37.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd465…0ab4backed Germany64c164.74$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa18b…3aedbacked Germany66c150$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63b4…94ddbacked France78c144.11$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.88757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3736…243fbacked Germany11c136.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa39…d95bbacked Germany78c124.09$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6807…391ebacked France37c107.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.52683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+48.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc711…d3c6backed France35c105.71$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3a…f5d5backed Germany67c105.09$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c6…b942backed France30c101$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.93253.1%17 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+46.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e60…4347backed France33c100.29$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba3f…8b64backed France37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631758.8%10 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b9f…d2b9backed France31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a72…12debacked Germany63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a4…199fbacked France34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.06540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed France32c95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.63231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce10…902bbacked France35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.71560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558c…c433backed Germany33c85.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.441258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b50…87fbbacked France36c82.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.941942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+82.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa945…6a28backed Germany67c82.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc060…9f96backed Germany64c78.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…6e8ebacked France36c71.73$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.91475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+182.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba19…0f73backed France36c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x685e…bb41backed France52c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccce…7a04backed France67c63.03$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.95911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7c8…24dcbacked France38c62.16$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.543740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x076b…8911backed France36c58.33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa357…d47cbacked France29c57.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7338…1483backed France35c55.26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ff…91a1backed Germany70c54.06$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd547…64c4backed Germany66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.85425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-67.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba1…27fdbacked Germany67c48.82$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef97…c23fbacked Germany67c42.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Germany67c41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Germany59c36.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.593246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x807f…bad6backed France41c36.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.591241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff9c…2c98backed Germany64c34.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5644…e77abacked France37c32.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+62.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8024…ba91backed France36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc922…bf70backed France40c27.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-52.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.