Olympics · resolved market
Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x100m Relay?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cdc23bee916dc716c8d6f4e4970817eab39bed50987d8a5d263c9ad0472b616
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 71c | 7,500$5,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,349.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 26c | 7,446$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,495.53 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 75c | 4,000$2,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,980 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked No | 32c | 2,408$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…ce9dbacked No | 23c | 2,379$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,832.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 20c | 1,746$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…3873backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…10fdbacked Yes | 26c | 843.28$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed No | 21c | 809.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.09 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc04b…1424backed No | 20c | 503.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 73c | 232.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ca…f9e6backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 79c | 199.98$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3a…1ab8backed No | 26c | 140$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed No | 27c | 117.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…45e0backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…8e19backed No | 32c | 87.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked No | 27c | 77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed No | 48c | 72.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcc…6ce5backed No | 25c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc20e…f344backed Yes | 78c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…8d00backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 51c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x100m Relay?this page
- Will another team win gold in the Men’s 4x100m Relay?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.