Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump post 26-30 times this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f0547126825a542422c4cbcd579f0f0e7fd025660a7fe00dc05b4529bdfef84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 1c | 10,294$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 8,377$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 10c | 2,535$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 3c | 2,231$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 8c | 1,327$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…3eb6backed Yes | 3c | 1,282$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…6f6abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…ae10backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +681.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…60acbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e1…f487backed Yes | 12c | 833.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 10c | 712.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 2c | 640.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 574.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…b391backed Yes | 5c | 478.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 6c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f1…5bccbacked Yes | 8c | 312$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 305$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump post 26-30 times this week?this page
- Will Trump post 1-10 times this week?No won
- Will Trump post 11-15 times this week?Yes won
- Will Trump post 16-20 times this week?No won
- Will Trump post 21-25 times this week?No won
- Will Trump post 31-35 times this week?No won
- Will Trump post 36-40 times this week?No won
- Will Trump post 41-45 times this week?No won
- Will Trump post 46-49 times this week?No won
- Will Trump post 50 or more times this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.