Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump post 46-49 times this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fb661f60c235904919106b417ab4180b7b0e1ab02029ffcd7b1775eb804bcc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 1c | 5,594$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed Yes | 0c | 4,910$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 2c | 3,699$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +187%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…c564backed Yes | 4c | 2,495$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 1c | 1,064$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…bbf8backed Yes | 8c | 622.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39e…e7c7backed Yes | 9c | 556.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48f1…5bccbacked Yes | 6c | 414.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes | 8c | 350.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 6c | 345$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d9…bb87backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 8c | 177$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 7c | 150.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump post 46-49 times this week?this page
- Will Trump post 1-10 times this week?No won
- Will Trump post 11-15 times this week?Yes won
- Will Trump post 16-20 times this week?No won
- Will Trump post 21-25 times this week?No won
- Will Trump post 26-30 times this week?No won
- Will Trump post 31-35 times this week?No won
- Will Trump post 36-40 times this week?No won
- Will Trump post 41-45 times this week?No won
- Will Trump post 50 or more times this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.