TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Trump post 16-20 times this week?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$228,641
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$159,350

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,641 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x28af…019fbacked Yes12c22,548$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,728.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c21,676$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.891421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes13c10,282$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.621118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-64.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf4…7883backed Yes18c7,023$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.15560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+94.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes8c6,678$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.513040%12 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x685e…bb41backed Yes14c6,161$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.665521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bba…9b86backed Yes1c5,400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.11612.5%2 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-47.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes4c4,570$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes5c4,202$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes12c4,193$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed Yes26c3,955$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.962832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes25c3,248$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.091747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1fe…c728backed Yes15c3,216$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.691020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1285…6a2fbacked Yes14c2,996$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes22c2,802$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.3350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5363…f46bbacked Yes25c2,493$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Yes14c2,479$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.06837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1188…bb30backed Yes9c2,154$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa357…1045backed Yes9c1,811$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5690%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…67a9backed Yes11c1,810$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.663836.8%14 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6848…af6bbacked Yes11c1,584$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes2c1,483$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick3cpaid+640.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes4c1,476$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6826112.6%33 W · 228 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38d1…8eb2backed Yes14c1,429$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Yes7c1,400$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9d5…6f6abacked Yes3c1,300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1440…36f0backed Yes16c1,276$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.74812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes8c1,189$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x766a…4f11backed Yes4c1,138$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92c4…75c3backed Yes8c1,113$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63dd…c15fbacked Yes9c1,059$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204e…4236backed Yes20c1,020$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8d…eb66backed Yes20c1,015$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0824…3bd9backed Yes10c1,004$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708145.7%37 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9cc…04b4backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf33…0dacbacked Yes10c1,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99c1…9b20backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2320…f17ebacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick3cpaid+681.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes14c953.14$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.491369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+27.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes26c953.14$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.862123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eff…6c34backed Yes20c897.61$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.68520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa850…e2f8backed Yes18c868.22$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9390%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70de…db94backed Yes29c863.26$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9210527.6%29 W · 76 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb6…5917backed Yes10c838.72$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes12c800$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+62.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf66e…a437backed Yes13c770.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa273…cd7cbacked Yes9c770$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42dd…48b7backed Yes15c750$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes13c743.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+71.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc060…9f96backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c5…3a81backed Yes10c703.32$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f3…b6c8backed Yes7c667$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.194012.5%5 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+55.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a1…0ff3backed Yes9c556.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Yes7c552.68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.51742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick15cpaid+506.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes3c537$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44387.9%3 W · 35 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1c6…67dfbacked Yes12c530$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff1…6c6bbacked Yes9c528.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa068…c1a7backed Yes20c507.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes6c500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-84%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes14c479.12$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.08425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes5c457.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a14…0762backed Yes40c444$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71aa…1a55backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ce3…9236backed Yes12c372.44$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+122.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ee3…10fdbacked Yes14c368.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes5c367$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.081233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe67…b933backed Yes11c361.95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed Yes12c359$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes16c336.17$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.661533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+53.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe741…c76dbacked Yes10c299.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba72…0dc6backed Yes34c291.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfd1…b005backed Yes12c286.33$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes5c263.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+634.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc487…d6c1backed Yes9c262.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011d…fcf6backed Yes17c253.23$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed Yes9c250$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.752814.3%4 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes13c220$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.281844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+41.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc154…4101backed Yes14c217.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…408cbacked Yes10c208.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked Yes11c208$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.39425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c85…9e34backed Yes14c202.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a9…0729backed Yes10c199.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe470…b6e2backed Yes23c198.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca0…b391backed Yes11c197.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c6…b942backed Yes12c196.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.97825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x440f…71dcbacked Yes15c190.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62fe…1d08backed Yes10c190$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed Yes26c180.77$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dea…f981backed Yes9c175.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+134.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x558c…c433backed Yes20c149.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+46.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8306…4ce5backed Yes14c135.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes12c120$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02d3…d671backed Yes13c119.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4bb…c586backed Yes14c118$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes20c110.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.787825.6%20 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.