Olympics · resolved market
Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x400m Relay?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc897587061e5d7f753f47771408da74e2f6deb0a4baabf03280f815e5706c3d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 19c | 6,030$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.62 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 5,598$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 79c | 5,517$4,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed No | 23c | 5,224$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…a9adbacked No | 23c | 4,304$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…3873backed No | 24c | 3,350$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 20c | 3,000$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…db84backed Yes | 78c | 2,400$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked No | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Yes | 78c | 1,900$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +176.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a7…ced1backed Yes | 80c | 1,767$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 29c | 687.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 77c | 524.35$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.4 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…4206backed No | 25c | 500$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…552fbacked No | 24c | 458.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 23c | 452.57$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed Yes | 74c | 406.28$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 80c | 400$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4268…43e5backed No | 26c | 390$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 68c | 387.5$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0786backed Yes | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8540…e24fbacked Yes | 79c | 308.96$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…ad89backed Yes | 80c | 294.51$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 19c | 247.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked No | 24c | 239.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb99…99ccbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…33fbbacked Yes | 77c | 188.29$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…16f2backed Yes | 77c | 178.57$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed No | 19c | 174$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…7d77backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 78c | 109.48$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 24c | 99.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8be7backed Yes | 74c | 96.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked No | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…902bbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…c2f6backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb98…969dbacked Yes | 79c | 55.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…da98backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…f3babacked Yes | 72c | 41.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…c433backed Yes | 79c | 35.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…50b9backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…2c3cbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…642abacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…8abebacked Yes | 80c | 29.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Yes | 77c | 22.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…1605backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x400m Relay?this page
- Will Botswana win gold in the Men’s 4x400m Relay?No won
- Will Great Britain win gold in the Men’s 4x400m Relay?No won
- Will another team win gold in the Men’s 4x400m Relay?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.