College Football · resolved market
Will Penn St. beat USC?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5944f9d174921b1d2eba7a8ebdea4ac66f9303594ed37557ea3e958950161b94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn Stof Penn St, USC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Penn St | 55c | 2,780$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.31 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Penn St | 62c | 2,591$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.56 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed USC | 47c | 2,584$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.74 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked USC | 38c | 2,050$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.08 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked USC | 73c | 1,530$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.06 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Penn St | 20c | 1,191$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.8 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed USC | 36c | 1,074$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.6 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed USC | 63c | 814.66$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.79 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Penn St | 50c | 631.22$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.51 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Penn St | 75c | 558.43$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.97 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked USC | 44c | 529.39$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.93 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5521…5d75backed USC | 43c | 483.72$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Penn St | 43c | 400$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Penn St | 64c | 391.59$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.97 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…5d4abacked Penn St | 46c | 379.34$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca9…4ebbbacked Penn St | 38c | 260.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…6565backed Penn St | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed USC | 38c | 126.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed USC | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Penn St | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885b…1fe5backed USC | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Penn St | 47c | 98.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7585…3824backed USC | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Penn St | 54c | 87.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…4bbebacked Penn St | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e948backed Penn St | 39c | 71.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed USC | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 67cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb55e…3aecbacked USC | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…c88cbacked Penn St | 54c | 63.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…a574backed Penn St | 64c | 55.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed USC | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed USC | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Penn St | 60c | 49.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Penn St | 51c | 49.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486c…3d03backed USC | 40c | 46.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Penn St | 63c | 44.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22e…c0aebacked USC | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed USC | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Penn St | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb40…abcbbacked Penn St | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d96…6831backed USC | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed USC | 37c | 35.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Penn St | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…df2fbacked USC | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ec…b8b7backed Penn St | 63c | 23.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…1cc1backed Penn St | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…e009backed Penn St | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8d…3ee3backed Penn St | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Penn St | 61c | 20.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…3b7abacked Penn St | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Penn St | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Penn St. beat USC?this page
- Will Penn St. and USC combine for 51 or more points?Over won
- Will Penn St. beat USC by 4 or more points?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.