College Football · resolved market
Will Penn St. beat USC by 4 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c8b5e9a2fc9b012aeccd5899e0d5e0465c12dc4f0ae241c93a30c9219c9291f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 48c | 653.46$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.8 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Yes | 52c | 432.69$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 40c | 432.69$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked No | 48c | 331.21$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.92 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…314bbacked Yes | 54c | 258.18$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…4bbebacked Yes | 56c | 203.67$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.09 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 45c | 158.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Yes | 51c | 124.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 43c | 121.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed No | 49c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…7708backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59b…69d2backed No | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb987…945ebacked Yes | 52c | 30.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9c…2c98backed No | 49c | 23.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Penn St. beat USC by 4 or more points?this page
- Will Penn St. and USC combine for 51 or more points?Over won
- Will Penn St. beat USC?Penn St won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.