NFL · resolved market
Packers vs. Rams
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa318825526391723e6fd92aa410ed4b5003c94078640ddd1424eacdaeef3d782
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Packersof Packers, Rams
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75e0…fe50backed Packers | 77c | 6,704$5,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.97 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Rams | 37c | 6,170$2,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,257.26 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Rams | 32c | 6,161$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.92 | 144 | 57.6%83 W · 61 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Rams | 8c | 2,522$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.29 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Packers | 76c | 2,168$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.62 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Packers | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.98 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Rams | 35c | 1,954$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.08 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Rams | 41c | 1,502$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.01 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Rams | 20c | 1,378$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.94 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…05f6backed Packers | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Packers | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34e…895ebacked Rams | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…5801backed Packers | 69c | 985.51$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.51 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +9.6wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed Packers | 77c | 761.99$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Rams | 39c | 552.51$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.48 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Rams | 40c | 427.91$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.16 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Packers | 68c | 416.12$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.84 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…9c6ebacked Rams | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…07c3backed Rams | 41c | 331.71$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Packers | 62c | 323.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…513ebacked Packers | 56c | 311.15$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.9 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ed…0bb4backed Rams | 39c | 290.27$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.77 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…611dbacked Packers | 60c | 233.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5f6cbacked Rams | 44c | 224.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Rams | 22c | 224.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4975…c492backed Rams | 58c | 202.47$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…b2aabacked Rams | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…304cbacked Packers | 72c | 186.38$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rams | 46c | 185.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5021…a09fbacked Rams | 39c | 177$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2833…e1edbacked Packers | 61c | 177$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Packers | 59c | 173.3$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdf…c1edbacked Rams | 42c | 165.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Packers | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…efb8backed Packers | 53c | 160.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…c1f3backed Rams | 38c | 115.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…c88cbacked Packers | 74c | 102.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Packers | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Rams | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Packers | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842c…2e53backed Rams | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Packers | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc19a…b660backed Rams | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -5.8wins | -0.24per pick | 28cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Rams | 36c | 97.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Rams | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Packers | 54c | 85.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Packers | 61c | 83.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Packers | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Packers | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Packers | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4181backed Rams | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Rams | 33c | 75.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…7a11backed Packers | 70c | 73.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Rams | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed Rams | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…4dc5backed Packers | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Rams | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Packers | 61c | 69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Packers | 60c | 68.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 205 | 57.6%118 W · 87 L | +16.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedd5…63a1backed Packers | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 158 | 58.9%93 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Rams | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Rams | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…5ef7backed Packers | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…4fddbacked Packers | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…2a19backed Rams | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…a0c3backed Packers | 61c | 53.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Rams | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…7b00backed Packers | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Packers | 59c | 43.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…edfbbacked Packers | 61c | 41.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…4666backed Packers | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…1e3dbacked Rams | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7019…4d84backed Packers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…88e7backed Packers | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…45e9backed Rams | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Rams | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…15dbbacked Rams | 41c | 30.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…93abbacked Packers | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3200…d8c8backed Packers | 67c | 29.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Rams | 37c | 27.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…8c07backed Packers | 59c | 26.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…52f3backed Packers | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c9…396cbacked Rams | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Packers | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.