Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeda127ce0895e83721859365ec354aa03388fba96b50ae7a9072b7f9b585c117
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 37c | 822.03$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.54 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 802.93$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 58c | 708.45$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.99 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 28c | 703.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f0…a3e8backed No | 53c | 631.68$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39e…e7c7backed Yes | 72c | 457.26$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 403.53$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 401.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.15 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 49c | 322.35$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.94 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b1…3dc2backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 58c | 272.44$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.79 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked No | 63c | 271$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…b40bbacked Yes | 44c | 225.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 31c | 195.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 26c | 169.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…44b7backed Yes | 45c | 159.35$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5b…0a40backed Yes | 7c | 153.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +443.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 66c | 150.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 44c | 137.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 29c | 129.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 29c | 119.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 21c | 103.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 51c | 102.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 27c | 100.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67c…608bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 26c | 99.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…9949backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…1002backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Yes | 59c | 79.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 44c | 70.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 69.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…649dbacked Yes | 49c | 67.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 27c | 64.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed No | 79c | 63.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 19c | 63.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 30c | 62.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e79…6a45backed Yes | 32c | 61.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f9…4699backed Yes | 51c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 54.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…364cbacked Yes | 54c | 52.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…2859backed Yes | 38c | 52.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 63c | 50.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22c…66ebbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 35c | 49.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…c580backed No | 41c | 47.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…9c2ebacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…b968backed Yes | 44c | 45.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…f899backed Yes | 43c | 41.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…6a38backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 61c | 28.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 56c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked No | 68c | 24.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…2b4abacked Yes | 65c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae27…d0fbbacked Yes | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…b449backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or below on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or higher on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.