Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdd8ab482789d906e17f7f205504f56ebc98a58931265334cabab397c1bb89ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe939…b40bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 7c | 3,200$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.99 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 7c | 1,235$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 10c | 1,027$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.66 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 747.58$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…5ba7backed Yes | 22c | 597.05$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 23c | 569.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 7c | 487.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 10c | 249.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…2f87backed Yes | 12c | 200.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +218%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…fba2backed No | 76c | 198.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 17c | 198.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 186.2$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e79…6a45backed Yes | 15c | 132.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 78c | 127.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked Yes | 11c | 124$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…9ff3backed Yes | 14c | 111.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed Yes | 21c | 102.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 16c | 95.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 83.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…364cbacked Yes | 42c | 81.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 15c | 81.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or below on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or higher on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.